Predictions & Surprises

In elections this close, prognosticating is always circumspect. But
now that I am back as an armchair politico I figured I would analyze
my experiences and do a bit of forecasting:

1 - Edwards will finish a surprisingly distant third, right at 20%

For avid readers of Ground Game, you knew three days ago what Politico
and Real Clear Politics reported today. Edwards is an angry man or at least assuming that posture to get win Iowa. I'm not sure how well that actually plays with Iowans. They truly believe the Democrats are a toss up and many are still intentionally undecided. I don't believe the harsh message of Edwards will stand up against the Clinton machine or Obama's message of hope. Edwards is well organized, but not well enough.

His other problem is the primary people attending his events may find a difficult time determining what part of the Edward's duality of America they fit into. They can sympathize with his stories of those less fortunate, but that does not mean they relate to them. And given the host of options this go round, Edwards won't hold. Not to mention Edwards is not a great second choice candidate so he will make up less ground than Hillary or Barack on the second count.

2 - Richardson will surprise and beat expectations

Polls have Richardson anywhere from 5%-12%. He has a devoted following and good representation in about 75% of the Iowa precincts. His main draw is twofold - education and bringing troops home now (even if it is unfeasible) his big question is viability. I expect he will do better in many precincts and beat the 15% threshold needed to hold his votes at caucus. I expect him to come in around 13-15% statewide and possibly begin brokering a deal for VP if the front runners stay close.

3 - Obama will win Iowa by a slim 2 points and take great momentum
into NH

I believe more undecideds leave Obama events as supporters than in similar events with other candidates. His organization is strong. Money is plentiful. His message is hopeful. He plays well in both metro and rural areas and Hillary's negatives are still strong. But most of all, he attracts more first time caucus goers than the others. As I am leaving Iowa, the coldest high pressure system of the year is setting in (highs ranging from 3-16 degrees statewide) but warmer weather returns for a sunny caucus day in the upper 30's. I believe turnout for Democrats will be greater than expected and put Barack over the top.

4 - Fred will drop out of the race after new Hampshire

Thompson is a victim of his own obstinacy. It's not a question of work ethic or even desire. But Fred has in his mind how he will get elected and will not change his game plan. Fred is like classic big 10, line it up and run down their throats kind of football team that has faded because they fail to adapt their offense to the game that isn't going very well. Iowa is Fred's 3rd quarter and New Hampshire is his 4th. South Carolina would be overtime if he somehow rallies but that would be Fred's homers talking. Thompson may survive Iowa in third, but more likely McCain passes him.

He says he is running because people wanted him to. Those folks will have found a new horse in a week and a half.

5 - Romney will win Iowa by a surprising 6-8% and Huck's improbable
run will be over

First let me defend an equally likely outcome. I have waited all week
to hear Huck get dumped on by Iowans. Outside the women at Rudy's HQ
that wanted to brawl with another lady who stood in front of her, Huck was most Republicans first or second choice and I heard very little about Romney. It is likely that the good church folk of Iowa made up their mind early and checked out of the process because they had their guy. Dale's point about Romney's commercials, attack ads or not, could likely be perceived as such and Huck could win by 6-8% himself. I recall Iowa went for Pat Robertson once.

But for three reasons, I believe Mitt takes it without it really being close. First, Romney never made if to Des Moines. He spent his days going from small town to smaller town building his organization. And organization is what separates the contenders and pretenders.

Second was Jackie Henson. I am sure she was a nice lady, but to be the head Volunteer Coordinator and not remember the story of a volunteer paying his own way from Vegas after hearing it twice as reading twice leads me to believe the campaign is over matched relying on Huck's communication skills to carry the day. (I just got home and saw that his 1pm press conference was either very shrewd or a debacle - what a guy) Iowans don't typically GO (though they may respond positive in poll questions) to caucus because they like a guy. They go because their neighbor/fellow Iowan convinces them to go. I have learned the ground game is crucial and I don't think he has a good one.

Finally, it is that one "something" that will keep some from caucusing for him. Take the guy who drove the airport shuttle today. "On the republican side, I like Huckabee I guess, though there is still something I am unsure about him." I think many Iowans believe something is unsure about him. Be it how his faith has come to the surface or his Pakistan gaffe or for me, it was the question Russert asked him on Meet the Press "Is Pakistan mostly Sunni or Shiite?" (the audacity of the question itself says a lot, like Huck was playing "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?") Then came the answer after a momentary pause as he searches the talking points in his head. "Sunni," he said. I still didn't know if he was right or even if he knew he was right. Turns out he was but I want my President to be more than a lucky guest on a game show. That's my something.

Like everyone else, I will now sit back and watch it all unfold.