Bhutto Assassination May Change the Gameplan

"The past three months have seen an odd turn in the presidential primary process in both parties — a turn away from the key issues confronting the United States and toward emotional and social vapor. The success of the surge in Iraq, coupled with the bizarre “we’re safe” reading of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, drained some of the passion from the anti-war fervor in the Democratic primary electorate and from the hawkish fervor of the Republican primary electorate. In their place came the Christian identity-politics rise of Mike Huckabee on the Republican side and the “we need a nice new politics” rise of Barack Obama on the Democratic side." - John Podhoretz, Contentions

This is BIG news partly because it turns the attention back to foriegn policy issues (as Podhoretz speaks to above) and partly due to the shortened calendar with one week till the Iowa Caucus. No doubt McCain benefits as the GOP will be reminded that there is still a need for a strong President, not just a nice guy. The MSM will also have a new story for several cycles which takes both Huckabee and Obama off the front pages.

Interestingly enough, I believe Huck and Obama are indelibly connected in this election. They both represent a turn from the politics of yesterday to a new politics of tomorrow. But they both take a hit in the political world of today with Bhutto's assassination.

"Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) may also see a political advantage from the tragedy in Pakistan, because Bhutto’s killing undercuts Huckabee’s folksy shtick. Huckabee has shown little grasp of foreign policy and was embarrassed before Christmas by a Foreign Affairs article under his byline that did not take the topic seriously." - M. Allen, J. Martin & B. Smith, The Politico

Unfortunately for my camp, the news is not good. Huck is falling back in the polls (Romney's negative warfare seems to be working) and the good ole boy image will struggle to stand up to a new perceived threat even though that threat is more feeling and less factual. Perception with seven days to go is more reality that Huck needs it to be. He jumped out early on this issue (nice to have Ed Rollins actually inform him of breaking news of the foreign front this time) but he will need to show himself more than a good preacher wanting to make it all better. This is his opportunity to show himself a serious leader for serious times.

More Added -------

This is not what Huck needed.

"ORLANDO, FLA. -- With about 150 supporters crowded around a podium set up on the tarmac of Orlando Executive airport (and about 20 Ron Paul supporters waving signs outside) Mike Huckabee strode out to the strains of “Right Now” by Van Halen and immediately addressed the Bhutto situation, expressing “our sincere concern and apologies for what has happened in Pakistan.”

[**UPDATE: The Huckabee campaign later clarified the last quote, telling CBS News: "Gov. Huckabee while speaking at a campaign event earlier this morning in Florida intended to extend his deepest sympathies to the people of Pakistan when he used the word 'apologies.' He is outraged and saddened by the attack and the loss of a world leader whose life he believes was a profile in courage."]"