In elections this close, prognosticating is always circumspect. But
now that I am back as an armchair politico I figured I would analyze
my experiences and do a bit of forecasting:
1 - Edwards will finish a surprisingly distant third, right at 20%
For avid readers of Ground Game, you knew three days ago what Politico
and Real Clear Politics reported today. Edwards is an angry man or at least assuming that posture to get win Iowa. I'm not sure how well that actually plays with Iowans. They truly believe the Democrats are a toss up and many are still intentionally undecided. I don't believe the harsh message of Edwards will stand up against the Clinton machine or Obama's message of hope. Edwards is well organized, but not well enough.
His other problem is the primary people attending his events may find a difficult time determining what part of the Edward's duality of America they fit into. They can sympathize with his stories of those less fortunate, but that does not mean they relate to them. And given the host of options this go round, Edwards won't hold. Not to mention Edwards is not a great second choice candidate so he will make up less ground than Hillary or Barack on the second count.
2 - Richardson will surprise and beat expectations
Polls have Richardson anywhere from 5%-12%. He has a devoted following and good representation in about 75% of the Iowa precincts. His main draw is twofold - education and bringing troops home now (even if it is unfeasible) his big question is viability. I expect he will do better in many precincts and beat the 15% threshold needed to hold his votes at caucus. I expect him to come in around 13-15% statewide and possibly begin brokering a deal for VP if the front runners stay close.
3 - Obama will win Iowa by a slim 2 points and take great momentum
into NH
I believe more undecideds leave Obama events as supporters than in similar events with other candidates. His organization is strong. Money is plentiful. His message is hopeful. He plays well in both metro and rural areas and Hillary's negatives are still strong. But most of all, he attracts more first time caucus goers than the others. As I am leaving Iowa, the coldest high pressure system of the year is setting in (highs ranging from 3-16 degrees statewide) but warmer weather returns for a sunny caucus day in the upper 30's. I believe turnout for Democrats will be greater than expected and put Barack over the top.
4 - Fred will drop out of the race after new Hampshire
Thompson is a victim of his own obstinacy. It's not a question of work ethic or even desire. But Fred has in his mind how he will get elected and will not change his game plan. Fred is like classic big 10, line it up and run down their throats kind of football team that has faded because they fail to adapt their offense to the game that isn't going very well. Iowa is Fred's 3rd quarter and New Hampshire is his 4th. South Carolina would be overtime if he somehow rallies but that would be Fred's homers talking. Thompson may survive Iowa in third, but more likely McCain passes him.
He says he is running because people wanted him to. Those folks will have found a new horse in a week and a half.
5 - Romney will win Iowa by a surprising 6-8% and Huck's improbable
run will be over
First let me defend an equally likely outcome. I have waited all week
to hear Huck get dumped on by Iowans. Outside the women at Rudy's HQ
that wanted to brawl with another lady who stood in front of her, Huck was most Republicans first or second choice and I heard very little about Romney. It is likely that the good church folk of Iowa made up their mind early and checked out of the process because they had their guy. Dale's point about Romney's commercials, attack ads or not, could likely be perceived as such and Huck could win by 6-8% himself. I recall Iowa went for Pat Robertson once.
But for three reasons, I believe Mitt takes it without it really being close. First, Romney never made if to Des Moines. He spent his days going from small town to smaller town building his organization. And organization is what separates the contenders and pretenders.
Second was Jackie Henson. I am sure she was a nice lady, but to be the head Volunteer Coordinator and not remember the story of a volunteer paying his own way from Vegas after hearing it twice as reading twice leads me to believe the campaign is over matched relying on Huck's communication skills to carry the day. (I just got home and saw that his 1pm press conference was either very shrewd or a debacle - what a guy) Iowans don't typically GO (though they may respond positive in poll questions) to caucus because they like a guy. They go because their neighbor/fellow Iowan convinces them to go. I have learned the ground game is crucial and I don't think he has a good one.
Finally, it is that one "something" that will keep some from caucusing for him. Take the guy who drove the airport shuttle today. "On the republican side, I like Huckabee I guess, though there is still something I am unsure about him." I think many Iowans believe something is unsure about him. Be it how his faith has come to the surface or his Pakistan gaffe or for me, it was the question Russert asked him on Meet the Press "Is Pakistan mostly Sunni or Shiite?" (the audacity of the question itself says a lot, like Huck was playing "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?") Then came the answer after a momentary pause as he searches the talking points in his head. "Sunni," he said. I still didn't know if he was right or even if he knew he was right. Turns out he was but I want my President to be more than a lucky guest on a game show. That's my something.
Like everyone else, I will now sit back and watch it all unfold.
Monday, December 31, 2007
Huckabee Goes Negative, Well Sort of...
Mike Huckabee produced a new ad directed at Mitt Romney (an absolute howitzer), called a press conference today to show it to the media, and then at the press conference showed the ad while announcing a change of heart that the ad will not run? Is this sincere?
My first thought is that Mike Huckabee saw that Mr. Romney's new ad closes the sale with Iowans in his positive, presidential style. The Huckabee camp did not want their nasty hit piece to be their final impression on Iowa caucus goers while Mr. Romney was all over television looking presidential.
Then why show it to the media? It doesn't make sense...unless they know they cannot afford to compete with the Romney Campaign on the airwaves, and are looking to their friendlies in the media and in the blog-o-sphere to carry their water.
The other possibility (speculating from Jonathan's first person observations) is that the Iowa Huckabee Team truly does not know what they are going to do next, and they called the press conference with no concrete strategy as to what they would do or say over the next few days. I realize the situation on the ground is fluid, but if Mr. Rollins and Mr. Huckabee can't execute a coherent plan to speak to friendly, interested Iowans, I am more uncertain than ever of their ability to execute a heavier political strategy with Russia or Pakistan.
Either way, this seems like a misstep for the Huckabee camp.
My first thought is that Mike Huckabee saw that Mr. Romney's new ad closes the sale with Iowans in his positive, presidential style. The Huckabee camp did not want their nasty hit piece to be their final impression on Iowa caucus goers while Mr. Romney was all over television looking presidential.
Then why show it to the media? It doesn't make sense...unless they know they cannot afford to compete with the Romney Campaign on the airwaves, and are looking to their friendlies in the media and in the blog-o-sphere to carry their water.
The other possibility (speculating from Jonathan's first person observations) is that the Iowa Huckabee Team truly does not know what they are going to do next, and they called the press conference with no concrete strategy as to what they would do or say over the next few days. I realize the situation on the ground is fluid, but if Mr. Rollins and Mr. Huckabee can't execute a coherent plan to speak to friendly, interested Iowans, I am more uncertain than ever of their ability to execute a heavier political strategy with Russia or Pakistan.
Either way, this seems like a misstep for the Huckabee camp.
I'm Still Impressed with the Candidates and with Jonathan
Great posts and pics continue to be posted (was that a halo around Obama)? It's good to see that Jonathan's love of BHO never died, it just lay fallow for awhile.
So if I could sum up, Jonathan has been impressed with every candidate he has seen in person....they are thoughtful, funny, magnetic, etc. I have no doubt that Obama, Richardson, Thompson, Giuliani, and Huckabee are good, decent men (I still have my doubts about Edwards). These traits are probably more evident in person than filtered through the media. So what is it about the current state our TV, newspaper, internet coverage that is so NEGATIVE about the whole thing? Why do we obsess over who is or is not up by 2 pts, or who is about to go negative, or who has a "nanny (or drug or illegal immigrant or DUI) issue". Why is there, in the media, such a "paucity of hope."
Maybe the truth is that as Americans we view the race as entertainment but let the issues shape our votes. Truth be told, I'm going to click on a link on Drudge that reads "Huck slams Hill" but when I actually go to vote, I'm going to be thinking about what issues each candidate supports and what kind of person he or she is. I think a lot of people are like that. I think America is a land were tens of millions will watch/read what Paris Hilton is doing just for entertainment but it would be hard to find tens of thousands that would vote her to be dog catcher.
Jonathan, the only thing left to make your trip complete would be a pic of HRC and your thoughts of her in person.
So if I could sum up, Jonathan has been impressed with every candidate he has seen in person....they are thoughtful, funny, magnetic, etc. I have no doubt that Obama, Richardson, Thompson, Giuliani, and Huckabee are good, decent men (I still have my doubts about Edwards). These traits are probably more evident in person than filtered through the media. So what is it about the current state our TV, newspaper, internet coverage that is so NEGATIVE about the whole thing? Why do we obsess over who is or is not up by 2 pts, or who is about to go negative, or who has a "nanny (or drug or illegal immigrant or DUI) issue". Why is there, in the media, such a "paucity of hope."
Maybe the truth is that as Americans we view the race as entertainment but let the issues shape our votes. Truth be told, I'm going to click on a link on Drudge that reads "Huck slams Hill" but when I actually go to vote, I'm going to be thinking about what issues each candidate supports and what kind of person he or she is. I think a lot of people are like that. I think America is a land were tens of millions will watch/read what Paris Hilton is doing just for entertainment but it would be hard to find tens of thousands that would vote her to be dog catcher.
Jonathan, the only thing left to make your trip complete would be a pic of HRC and your thoughts of her in person.
Closing the Sale in Iowa
Excellent first hand observations from the Obama event, Jonathan. Can you stay for another week, and fly to New Hampshire on Friday?
See the perfectly executed distillation of Governor Romney's positive message in thirty seconds now posted on The Page.
See the perfectly executed distillation of Governor Romney's positive message in thirty seconds now posted on The Page.
The Hopemonger
I had great seats in Athens for the cool Saturday evening game in October. Auburn was in town to face the Georgia Bulldogs at Sam Boyd Stadium. This was a huge SEC match-up and the sold out crowd (except for the Auburn faithful appearing as an orange blob in the upper deck) was blacked out. Before a player set foot on the field, it was buzzing.
Last night at Weeks Middle School on the south side of Des Moines, there was no such buzz. The campaign cheerleaders and the loud music seemed unable to overcome the schedule that ran almost an hour late. And neither the esteemed Senator from North Dakota nor the local south side lawyer could generate the sort of enthusiasm you might expect from a crowd waiting for a supposed rock star.
And then in one moment, when Barack Obama appeared from behind the bleachers with that apple pie sized smile, the room was overwhelmed with electricity. My view from the front row, just inside the rope line, saw each facial expression, the gaze in his eyes, the dimples in his cheeks. Unlike any of the other events, the well orchestrated moment caught the energy of a flash mob as instantly everyone in the room who was physically able rose to their feet to catch a glimpse of this man.
Obama is the real deal. Be it his wry smirk or his confident chuckle, this man was born to play the role. He tone and cadence slipped in and out of the African-American preacher, the knowledgeable professor, and dare I say "Moses" (see The Synoptic Gospels of Obama & Huckabee). He exclaimed, "There is no problem we can't solve. No destiny we can't fulfill" and I believed him. While his message was certainly targeted for Iowa Democrats, he broadened his appeal. "Every American from every political stripe wants a new kid of politics." And perhaps his strongest line of the evening was, dare as say Kennedy or even Reagan re-visited. "We don't need more heat in Washington, we need more light."
His perfect pitch (even on his fourth rendition of his speech that day), his coy since of humor ("Normally when you do these genealogies, you hope for Paul Revere...or Willie Mays. And me, I got cousin Dick."), his inspirational rhythm brought the crowd to their feet three different occasions. These people, more diverse than any of the event participants I witnessed, would spontaneously call out to him and he would hear them and answer them.
If there were a man who turned one speech (at the Democratic National Convention in 2004) into a Presidential bid far before his "appointed" time, it is Obama. And while he dragged through the first part of the year, lagging in the polls and failing to impress in the debates, I now understand why his campaign has so much traction. It was here in this gymnasium that he touched people - with a glance, a laugh, and single word or phrase.
"My opponents have said I lack experience, I am naive, and I am too hopeful. Well, when you are a black man with a funny name and you are running for President you have to be hopeful. But they say, 'There goes Barack again, talking about hope.' They must think I am a hopemonger."
I shook his hand twice, exchanged a few words, watched how he carried himself, expressed himself, and touch his audience. There is something different about this man. Something that history will look back on scores of years from now and note with great reverence.
I am privileged to have been in the room. Hopemonger for President.
Iowa First
Joe Hallet (and crew) from DispatchPolitics.com posed the question, "Are Iowa, N.H. really worthy?" They note the movement from both parties to undo or change the current vetting system that forces candidates to stump in these two "first" states. My guess is this a charge from big name candidates who want to spend their time doing the big speeches and to which hand clutching is a bother. (It was Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio, a Hillary mouthpiece, that raised the issue) John Fund also addresses the concern that acts as a sub-plot in the quiet moments of the Iowa caucus.
I have meandered my way around Iowa for the better part of four days and I am impressed with these people. Not only do they take this role seriously, they were born into it, raised to understand their responsibility to educate themselves and ask the tough questions. Can some changes be made to the schedule to allow for a broader view early on in the primary season? Possibly. But I hope whatever conclusion is drawn up that Iowans maintain their significant role because these people, more so than any I have come across, see it as a sworn duty to the rest of our nation. We should be grateful.
I have meandered my way around Iowa for the better part of four days and I am impressed with these people. Not only do they take this role seriously, they were born into it, raised to understand their responsibility to educate themselves and ask the tough questions. Can some changes be made to the schedule to allow for a broader view early on in the primary season? Possibly. But I hope whatever conclusion is drawn up that Iowans maintain their significant role because these people, more so than any I have come across, see it as a sworn duty to the rest of our nation. We should be grateful.
The Nicest Guy in the Race
The scowl that has made its way onto the battered face of Mike Huckabee in recent days is probably the fate of a front runner. Even the hopeful Obama sometimes looks as if the frustration of a constant barrage of attacks are taking their personal toll. Which means the happiest dwarf in Iowa's bunch is still at the back of the pack and trying to eek out every last moment he has left.
I was impressed by Bill Richardson. While Edwards was angry, Bill was affable. While Fred was intense, Bill was entertaining. While Rudy was exiting, Bill was exciting.
The pregame at the People's Court (a popular club in the Court St. District when the sun goes down) had been transformed and held over 300 Iowans and press (and political bloggers like me) there to see Richardson be interviewed by Martin Sheen. Cheers were led by those on the stage as if we had mistakenly slipped into a rock concert or better, a high school basketball game. We were soon disappointed to find out that Jed Bartlett (Sheen's Presidential character on West Wing) was too sick to make the flight to Iowa. But our concern quickly faded as the music kicked up and Richardson made his way into to room. He was wearing a brown leather jacket over a red turtle neck and looked nothing like the candidates I had seen so far - he looked like he was enjoying it.
As he wound his way through the room, I shook his hand and he looked me in the eyes and for a moment I could see what voters in New Mexico have seen thus electing him governor of that state. His speech was more than positive. It was stirring. For a moment I thought that I would be okay with this guy leading our country as he promised a January 3rd surprise in the caucus.
Reality, though, may be a stronger force than Richardson's positive message. More likely, Richardson could be key in a late hour negotiated deal that could put one of the top three Democrats over the top. And truthfully, Bill is as likely to be the VP running mate as any other candidate because who doesn't want the "nice" guy on the team (not to mention his western state could be pivotal in the general and his Hispanic heritage could sway the largest minority in America).
So maybe there is a happy ending for this nice guy.
The Week Ahead
In the spirit of Iowa, I will publish my schedule for the coming week (subject to change).
Monday -- At work in Indianapolis (someone has to protect the world's crops from yield robbing weed, insect, and disease pests).
Monday p.m. thru All Day Tuesday -- New Year's Celebration with friends and family in Indy
Wednesday -- Depart for Quad Cities, Arrive at Romney Campaign's Bettendorf, IA office to work phone bank from 5p to 8p
CAUCUS DAY (Thu, Jan 3) -- From 9a to 6p I will be working phones and going door to door as a part of Operation M.I.T.T. (Mobile Initiative for Tactical Turnout). The strength of the Romney Campaign's "Get Out the Vote" effort could be significant in a tight race. It is supposed to be sunny and 30 degrees in Bettendorf with a 10% chance of precipitation.
At 6p, I will attend a local caucus with one of our precinct captains. The Romney campaign will likely be the only on the Republican side to have staff or volunteers at each and every precinct caucus in the state. A victory party has been scheduled in the Quad Cities for staff and volunteers to gather as the results are reported from around the state.
Some have estimated that the GOP will have about 80,000 caucus-goers statewide on Thursday night. If we assume the back markers in the GOP field continue to receive their 5-15% as polling indicates, the magic number for Mr. Huckabee or Mr. Romney to ensure victory could be 28-30,000 caucus-goers. It is my goal to ensure the turnout of 50 Romney-supporting caucus-goers during my short time on the ground.
Jonathan met Mark Madden Saturday in Iowa. He has a great piece today contrasting the field operations of the Romney and Huckabee campaigns.
Monday -- At work in Indianapolis (someone has to protect the world's crops from yield robbing weed, insect, and disease pests).
Monday p.m. thru All Day Tuesday -- New Year's Celebration with friends and family in Indy
Wednesday -- Depart for Quad Cities, Arrive at Romney Campaign's Bettendorf, IA office to work phone bank from 5p to 8p
CAUCUS DAY (Thu, Jan 3) -- From 9a to 6p I will be working phones and going door to door as a part of Operation M.I.T.T. (Mobile Initiative for Tactical Turnout). The strength of the Romney Campaign's "Get Out the Vote" effort could be significant in a tight race. It is supposed to be sunny and 30 degrees in Bettendorf with a 10% chance of precipitation.
At 6p, I will attend a local caucus with one of our precinct captains. The Romney campaign will likely be the only on the Republican side to have staff or volunteers at each and every precinct caucus in the state. A victory party has been scheduled in the Quad Cities for staff and volunteers to gather as the results are reported from around the state.
Some have estimated that the GOP will have about 80,000 caucus-goers statewide on Thursday night. If we assume the back markers in the GOP field continue to receive their 5-15% as polling indicates, the magic number for Mr. Huckabee or Mr. Romney to ensure victory could be 28-30,000 caucus-goers. It is my goal to ensure the turnout of 50 Romney-supporting caucus-goers during my short time on the ground.
Jonathan met Mark Madden Saturday in Iowa. He has a great piece today contrasting the field operations of the Romney and Huckabee campaigns.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
I'm impressed
I've fallen behind in my required "ground game" reading, but I've caught up tonight and I have to say I'm impressed. I'm adding this to my "check several times a day" list and checking in more frequently. Jonathan, well written posts and great pictures, but the latest pic of Yepsen is killing your site. Bring back the "Breck Girl" to get more traffic.
Dale, if you posted what you are doing I missed it. Post us an update of what you are doing.
Keep it up....I look forward to the Obama after party.
Go McCain
Dale, if you posted what you are doing I missed it. Post us an update of what you are doing.
Keep it up....I look forward to the Obama after party.
Go McCain
I ran into David Yepsen, political analyst for the Des Moines Register, at Edwards rally last night. He said Edwards has been getting large crowds. He wrote a handicap of the last few days worth reading.
The Fred Cause
With the music of his Nashville roots providing the melodic background, Fred Thompson entered the small room in the front of the Old Main Brewing Company. It was by far the smallest crowd in the smallest venue I have visited in Iowa. Now perhaps it was because it was more small town, hand shaking, question and answer kind of campaigning (the kind Fred evidently said yesterday he doesn't like). Thompson is a tall man and carries himself with that John Wayne presence. His deep, slow drawl supported a surprisingly quick wit. But the big surprise was that Fred, while struggling to find a style that attracts a great deal of money or poll numbers actually has substance. Be it the war on terror, economic issues, even the role of protecting pattens within the US economy (addressing a specific question posed to him) he showed himself to be intelligent, resolute and confident in his ability to be President.
The most significant discovery...Fred isn't really lazy or apathetic. Fred is just a raging (as much as a slow talking Tennessean can rage) independent man. He does not want to play the typical role Presidents must play deciding, instead, just to be himself - win, lose, or draw. He started his campaign on his schedule, he goes where he wants to go, does what he wants to do (or not do as exhibited in the Iowa debate where he proudly did not raise his hand) and apologizes to no one about it.
It is an admirable quality that will surely prevent him from getting the nomination much to the disappointment of his loyal following. I believe he is a strong leader but too obstinate to actually get elected to a national office. Case in point, according to Athena Mitchell, a great-grandmother from nearby Perry, Thompson refused to put on a fireman's hat or sit in the engine the other day on a stop in a small Iowa town. "I like him, but that disgusted me" said one of his big fans. What she does like was ironically (or not so) quoted by Fred himself twice. "What you see is what you get." Again an admirable quality that probably stands between him and a legitimate shot at the White House.
Jonathan Martin of Politico was in the crowd and gives the view from his seat.
Huckabunker Before the Final Stretch
Huckabee, following his Meet the Press interview live at 8am cst this morning, went off the public radar. His event at 11am at Cornerstone Family Church was canceled. I called HQ to find out where he would be appearing this afternoon and no public appearances we on the schedule. They were also not aware of any events tomorrow. I doubt that the SBC preacher is just observing the Sabbath or watching the final weekend of the NFL just four days before the caucus that holds his political future in hand.
Jonathan Martin of Politico mentions that Huckabee has "the calvary" in the way of political operatives joining him today for the final stretch. He also notes that Huckabee is shooting new ads this afternoon.
But I question why on the last weekend day before the caucus the Huckabee campaign is not taking advantage of free time for Iowans and making the rounds like every other POTUS hopeful.
Jonathan Martin of Politico mentions that Huckabee has "the calvary" in the way of political operatives joining him today for the final stretch. He also notes that Huckabee is shooting new ads this afternoon.
But I question why on the last weekend day before the caucus the Huckabee campaign is not taking advantage of free time for Iowans and making the rounds like every other POTUS hopeful.
The Insider Candidate
It strikes me as interesting that Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Obama attack "the establishment" and "insider candidates" when the duo have accomplished virtually nothing outside of government.
While it is true that Mr. Romney's father was a presidential candidate, it is also true that George Romney had a terrific record of leadership in the private sector before getting into politics. The same is true of Mitt Romney. Governor Romney founded Bain Capital and rescued the Salt Lake City Winter Games before being urged to get into the political arena. Mitt Romney's public and private leadership represent a break from "the establishment" -- he is not the insider candidate.
Let's take this a step further -- it is safe to say that John McCain, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards would not be presidential candidates were it not for their service in the United States Senate. If you subtract the contributions of any of these individuals, how does the Senate's body of work look different in their absence? Clinton, Obama, Edwards -- hmmm...? Yes, they are good looking and well-spoken. Agents of change? I think not.
On the other hand, McCain has exhibited tremendous leadership in the Senate. He has been a serious and thoughtful player for a long time, and the Senate's body of work would have taken a different form without his contributions. True, he has championed some items that aggravate conservatives and that is his hang up in the GOP. McCain is the ultimate insider candidate, but I'm not sure why Americans should be uneasy about that -- particularly those who prefer to see someone who can take the country in a new direction.
While it is true that Mr. Romney's father was a presidential candidate, it is also true that George Romney had a terrific record of leadership in the private sector before getting into politics. The same is true of Mitt Romney. Governor Romney founded Bain Capital and rescued the Salt Lake City Winter Games before being urged to get into the political arena. Mitt Romney's public and private leadership represent a break from "the establishment" -- he is not the insider candidate.
Let's take this a step further -- it is safe to say that John McCain, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards would not be presidential candidates were it not for their service in the United States Senate. If you subtract the contributions of any of these individuals, how does the Senate's body of work look different in their absence? Clinton, Obama, Edwards -- hmmm...? Yes, they are good looking and well-spoken. Agents of change? I think not.
On the other hand, McCain has exhibited tremendous leadership in the Senate. He has been a serious and thoughtful player for a long time, and the Senate's body of work would have taken a different form without his contributions. True, he has championed some items that aggravate conservatives and that is his hang up in the GOP. McCain is the ultimate insider candidate, but I'm not sure why Americans should be uneasy about that -- particularly those who prefer to see someone who can take the country in a new direction.
Impact of Contrast Ads
I just finished four Sunday shows on TiVo. The biggest downside of Governor Romney's new ads highlighting policy positions taken by Mr. Huckabee and Mr. McCain is that the media's sound byte is that "Romney has gone negative". It was even stated that a nasty fight in the trenches will favor Governor Romney.
Neither of the ads are personal in nature or call character into question. The intent of the ads is to remind Republican voters that Mr. Huckabee and Mr. McCain are not champions of William F. Buckley, Jr.-style conservatism that recognizes all three pillars -- national defense, economic, and social.
While media-types continue to be fascinated with Mr. McCain and Mr. Huckabee, it is interesting how much they do not like Mitt Romney. I respect liberal Juan Williams -- I think he is a great American, but he absolutely goes out of his way to take shots at Romney. It reminds me of President Bush's treatment by the media.
Neither of the ads are personal in nature or call character into question. The intent of the ads is to remind Republican voters that Mr. Huckabee and Mr. McCain are not champions of William F. Buckley, Jr.-style conservatism that recognizes all three pillars -- national defense, economic, and social.
While media-types continue to be fascinated with Mr. McCain and Mr. Huckabee, it is interesting how much they do not like Mitt Romney. I respect liberal Juan Williams -- I think he is a great American, but he absolutely goes out of his way to take shots at Romney. It reminds me of President Bush's treatment by the media.
I Love It When a Plan Comes Together
I started off early this morning through the cold and fog for Ames, Iowa, home of Iowa State University. I wanted to get out of the 400,000 person metropolis of Des Moines (Tom Clegg, one of its favorite sons, is quick to add that Des Moines serves the retail/industry needs of 3.5 million people so you get the big city feel without the congestion - a bit of Chamber of Commerce hype, but he loves his city) to experience campaigning on the road in small town America. My hope was to find a little coffee shop (with free wi-fi) on Main St. within walking distance of the Old Brew House where in an hour or so Fred Thompson will do a meet an greet.
Upon entering Ames, I discovered that this was not a small town, but a small college town. Retail on the outskirts has grown to include Panera Bread, Target, and all the suburbian establishments a college kid needs to survive away from home. After spotting my fall back for a decent cup of coffee, I made it to Main St where I pleasantly discovered "Cafe Diem - a privately owned coffee house" (they are proud of that here in Iowa) across the street from Thompson's venue of choice.
One of the important skills of a political blogger/tourist is eavesdropping on other people's conversations without being noticed. Immediately upon entering and finding my table I overheard to guys talking about Pakistan in relation to Presidential politics (see my earlier post this morning to know why that is a small confirmation of my theory). The coffee shop has filled up since I have been writing, probably because I am not the only one looking for my personal staging area before the event.
Fred Thompson has been somewhat of an enigma in this campaign. He was the Republican savior as long as he wasn't really running. His John Wayne stature and attitude (along with his post-Senate, small screen endeavors) remind most GOP faithfuls of Ronald Reagan and they hoped for a rerun. But he has, upon moving out of exploration of the idea of being Commander (Actor)-in-Chief, been called lazy, lethargic, and not "really" interested in the rigors of campaign life. He has been rising slightly in the polls as Huckabee has been retreating. It seems as if any concerns about Huck's foreign policy potential has flowed to Thompson being the only other candidate that can actually claim conservative values and background. And you have to respect that when Fred was asked "What are you thankful for this holiday season?" he responded, "I am thankful for my trophy wife."
I am not quite sure what to expect in this, my third official campaign stop. Following the Old Main Brewery, I will make my way back to Des Moines to see Bill Richardson be interviewed by one of my favorite Presidents, Jed Bartlett (aka Martin Sheen) then a small break for food again before the rally for Obama. Huckabee canceled this morning's church appearance (probably a dispute over the percentage of the offering he got to keep - just kidding) so I hope to try and squeeze him in today or tomorrow morning before I retreat to a warmer climate.
Upon entering Ames, I discovered that this was not a small town, but a small college town. Retail on the outskirts has grown to include Panera Bread, Target, and all the suburbian establishments a college kid needs to survive away from home. After spotting my fall back for a decent cup of coffee, I made it to Main St where I pleasantly discovered "Cafe Diem - a privately owned coffee house" (they are proud of that here in Iowa) across the street from Thompson's venue of choice.
One of the important skills of a political blogger/tourist is eavesdropping on other people's conversations without being noticed. Immediately upon entering and finding my table I overheard to guys talking about Pakistan in relation to Presidential politics (see my earlier post this morning to know why that is a small confirmation of my theory). The coffee shop has filled up since I have been writing, probably because I am not the only one looking for my personal staging area before the event.
Fred Thompson has been somewhat of an enigma in this campaign. He was the Republican savior as long as he wasn't really running. His John Wayne stature and attitude (along with his post-Senate, small screen endeavors) remind most GOP faithfuls of Ronald Reagan and they hoped for a rerun. But he has, upon moving out of exploration of the idea of being Commander (Actor)-in-Chief, been called lazy, lethargic, and not "really" interested in the rigors of campaign life. He has been rising slightly in the polls as Huckabee has been retreating. It seems as if any concerns about Huck's foreign policy potential has flowed to Thompson being the only other candidate that can actually claim conservative values and background. And you have to respect that when Fred was asked "What are you thankful for this holiday season?" he responded, "I am thankful for my trophy wife."
I am not quite sure what to expect in this, my third official campaign stop. Following the Old Main Brewery, I will make my way back to Des Moines to see Bill Richardson be interviewed by one of my favorite Presidents, Jed Bartlett (aka Martin Sheen) then a small break for food again before the rally for Obama. Huckabee canceled this morning's church appearance (probably a dispute over the percentage of the offering he got to keep - just kidding) so I hope to try and squeeze him in today or tomorrow morning before I retreat to a warmer climate.
The Synoptic Gospels of Obama & Huckabee
A summer ago, I was walking through Colonial Williamsburg (one of my favorite places) and the typical afternoon shower ensued so we ducked into the William & Mary University bookstore. I have always preferred college bookstores to the typical Borders because the works that take center stage in the marketing plan tend to be more intellectual in nature (not the Grisham's ??th book lacks mindful stimulation, but you get the picture). While the rains drenched the little town stuck in the late 1700's, I found Culture Code by Clotaire Rapaille. It was a fascinating read suggesting that every culture has certain codes or images that often hide beneath the service that define more realistically our belief or expectation of something (my apologies to Rapaille because I am sure that explanation does not do his work justice)
While there have been many suggestions as to how and why Americans choose to support candidates for President ("Who would I rather have a beer with?" or "Who will help my protect my wallet?") Clotaire states the culture code for the American president is "Moses" - we want someone to deliver us from or to something.
In multiple ways, Huckabee and Obama have been linked. They seem to be the nicest, most hopeful candidates. They both were to be the most damaged by the Bhutto assassination because they both lack the most foreign policy experience. They both came from the back of the pack to become front runners in Iowa. Faith has been used as both a positive marketing of the candidate and the stick used to beat them both up (accusations of Obama's Muslim past and the floating cross in Huck's Christmas ad).
This morning the two were paired once more on the "live from Iowa" edition of Meet the Press (here's hoping I get to meet Russert). Considering the potential risk, they both did well. Russert started each separate interview by showing the latest polls that have the duo falling behind in their respective races. The responses were similar and predictable citing other polls, still a long way to go, etc. Russert went immediately to foreign policy beliefs (specifically Pakistan and the Bhutto assassination) and questioned their experience to address these issues. Obama spoke directly to the situation in Pakistan and the need to insure legitimate elections soon. Huckabee in similar language explained his gaffes suggesting that his previous statements about Pakistan in his foreign policy article were almost prophetic.
Russert addressed them both on the negativity aimed specifically at them and they both pointed to the system and the people who have supported that system. Neither want to be seen as Washington insiders and both made the most of their opportunity to reposition themselves for the stretch run, eloquently I might add.
It seems that "change", a "new vision", a new force subversive to the establishment continues to elevate the popularity of these two men. So if Rapaille is right and we are subconsciously looking for a Moses to deliver us then the success of these two campaigns rest on Iowans determining what that want delivered from - a world at war with terror or a country held captive by a self-perpetuating political system of insiders. Without question, the barrage of attacks they both have received has hurt their poll numbers, but I still contend the fear of enemies abroad finding its way front and center for three news cycles has done the most damage.
If nothing new happens in Pakistan (or any where else in the world) to knock the caucus off the front page, there is still time for them to recover their leads and walk away winners. But if the headlines get captured again in these last days, they may both have to part the Red Sea to ever sit in the White House.
While there have been many suggestions as to how and why Americans choose to support candidates for President ("Who would I rather have a beer with?" or "Who will help my protect my wallet?") Clotaire states the culture code for the American president is "Moses" - we want someone to deliver us from or to something.
In multiple ways, Huckabee and Obama have been linked. They seem to be the nicest, most hopeful candidates. They both were to be the most damaged by the Bhutto assassination because they both lack the most foreign policy experience. They both came from the back of the pack to become front runners in Iowa. Faith has been used as both a positive marketing of the candidate and the stick used to beat them both up (accusations of Obama's Muslim past and the floating cross in Huck's Christmas ad).
This morning the two were paired once more on the "live from Iowa" edition of Meet the Press (here's hoping I get to meet Russert). Considering the potential risk, they both did well. Russert started each separate interview by showing the latest polls that have the duo falling behind in their respective races. The responses were similar and predictable citing other polls, still a long way to go, etc. Russert went immediately to foreign policy beliefs (specifically Pakistan and the Bhutto assassination) and questioned their experience to address these issues. Obama spoke directly to the situation in Pakistan and the need to insure legitimate elections soon. Huckabee in similar language explained his gaffes suggesting that his previous statements about Pakistan in his foreign policy article were almost prophetic.
Russert addressed them both on the negativity aimed specifically at them and they both pointed to the system and the people who have supported that system. Neither want to be seen as Washington insiders and both made the most of their opportunity to reposition themselves for the stretch run, eloquently I might add.
It seems that "change", a "new vision", a new force subversive to the establishment continues to elevate the popularity of these two men. So if Rapaille is right and we are subconsciously looking for a Moses to deliver us then the success of these two campaigns rest on Iowans determining what that want delivered from - a world at war with terror or a country held captive by a self-perpetuating political system of insiders. Without question, the barrage of attacks they both have received has hurt their poll numbers, but I still contend the fear of enemies abroad finding its way front and center for three news cycles has done the most damage.
If nothing new happens in Pakistan (or any where else in the world) to knock the caucus off the front page, there is still time for them to recover their leads and walk away winners. But if the headlines get captured again in these last days, they may both have to part the Red Sea to ever sit in the White House.
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Looking Ahead
Tomorrow's Schedule (if everything works out well): All times Central Standard Time
8am - Meet the Press Live from (my hotel room) Iowa with Huckabee & Obama
11am - Huckabee at Cornerstone Family Church, Des Moines - CANCELED
12:30pm - Thompson Event in Ames
3:15pm - Bill Richardson Event with Martin Sheen back in Des Moines
7:30pm - Obama Event in Des Moines
8am - Meet the Press Live from (my hotel room) Iowa with Huckabee & Obama
11am - Huckabee at Cornerstone Family Church, Des Moines - CANCELED
12:30pm - Thompson Event in Ames
3:15pm - Bill Richardson Event with Martin Sheen back in Des Moines
7:30pm - Obama Event in Des Moines
Another View from Rudy's Farewell Tour
Roger Simon of Politico and frequent guest on Hardball.
Mark Halperin was also in attendance but no good picture was taken. He actually does a pretty good daily blog. A press will do wonders for you.
How Popular is a Populist?
I finished my Grade-A Iowa corn fed fillet mignon at the swank 801 Steak & Chop House downtown and decided to try and catch the John Edwards event I learned about while talking with Mike Madden (newly added to the writing staff of Salon.com) this afternoon. After winding my way through the east side of Des Moines, I found East High School packed. Cars had filled up the main parking lot, an auxiliary lot and lined the streets on all sides. I was fifteen minutes late for the event and when I got inside the building, people were hanging off the rafters. Iowa's First Lady was introducing John Edwards but the best view I could get was the back of Elizabeth Edwards' head. I spotted a sign that said "Standing room available upstairs" so I cut a path behind the curtains acting as the backdrop for the main stage. I found a set of stairs and as I bound up them I almost ran into John Edwards. He smiled politely and I took his picture. We have both been there before.
Edwards took the stage to a cheering crowd and then fed them tired applause lines dissing the "glorification of corporate profits" and "Blackwater employees in Iraq making ten times what you make" certainly with no mention of the positive economic necessity of corporate profits and the very real danger Blackwater's employees live in everyday which is a bit more involved than his Grandaddy's daily walk to the mill. "Corporate greed is killing the middle class in America. The richest Americans (at least he acknowledge that rich Americans are still citizens of the US) are getting richer. They have a stranglehold on your democracy."
Surprisingly, these cracks, while meeting applause, seemed almost fatigued even for the (what seemed like) 1000 plus in attendance. The Democrats are in a dog fight although I did not hear any of the attacks that Edwards has reportedly been directing at Obama and I will see tomorrow what kind of favors Barack returns to him.
Edwards speech alternated between stories of men, women and especially children who he personally had come across that were either sick, hurt, deformed or hungry, had no insurance and Edwards seemed to indicate it was rich peoples' fault. I do believe there is a very different tone that Obama's message of one United State of America versus Edwards' clear intent to divide the working class from the wealthy class. I just wonder if all those there I saw wearing nice khakis and loafers and long wool coats (and looked a lot more like me than the typical mill worker) will be able to tell the difference between these two Americas cause I am betting if they do the calculations they may find themselves on the wrong side of the equation.
Overall this was the largest gathering of Iowans I have come across and yet the Rudy bunch was just as vocal proportionately.
I was expecting that Edwards passion would effect me in some way (I mean I cried at Rocky 5) but I was not touched or moved or left feeling any real compassion. Leave it to a lawyer to get me all confused.
Rudy's Iowa Send Off
Just after 10:00am this morning in Clive, IA, Mayor Guiliani made one of his final appearances before the caucus. His two best lines spoke to two of the three legs of the conservative base - defense and fiscal.
"I think we should stay on offense against terror that has waged war on us."
"This is a low ceiling. I don't like low ceilings. I want a high ceiling or even better no ceiling for my country's economy."
"They're all promising to raise taxes," he said. "I believe that's a promise they'll keep."
This was my first candidate event since arriving in Iowa. I was impressed by the Iowans who attended as their interest and knowledge of politics both at home and nationally was extensive. The lady pictured with Rudy sat next to me for a while and was as informed on the up to the minute status of the race as I was. These Iowans are also caucus vets. They knew the best seats and had no problem telling newcomers to get out of their way. It almost came to blows between the red head and the brunette at the bottom of the photo. Not really division in the ranks so much as wanting to see their faces on TV or in the paper. I guess it is their state right to do so.
Speaking of Forest Gump moments, take a look at the guy in the top right corner in the picture above from the New York Times caucus blog. Look familiar. I am sure their will be video as most of the CNN reporting staff was there (more on that soon).
The first question asked by a reporter as Rudy finished and started headed out was "Rudy, why are you leaving Iowa so soon?" I expect that was the biggest news out of this event. Rudy stills hopes for a Huckabee win to keep everything in the air till Florida.
It is also interesting to note the difference in organization with Rudy's campaign versus my experience at Huck's HQ yesterday. Probably 100 plus people crowded into a small room with overflow areas and hordes of press and it went off without a hitch. A young, blonde and in charge lady ran the event with precision. Pretty impressive what a little cash can buy you.
Updates: Chuck Todd bloggs about the event.
Friday, December 28, 2007
Day 1 - Redeemed (Part 2)
I have just returned from a fabulous evening with one of Des Moines' favorite sons. I first met Tom Clegg back in 1997. He was my church planting coach. Tom grew up in Des Moines. His mother is the former Chairperson of the Iowa Democratic Party (famous for her convention speak casting Iowa's delegate votes for Dukakis) and his dad was the president of the local NRA. Tom is a church planter, church consultant, author (everything from church leadership to history to a play) and even does some political consulting. Tom has met all the Presidential candidates on all sides as he is sought after to be a precinct captain by many campaigns. But those encounters only add to the handshakes of every US President since Kennedy.
We went downtown to experience a revitalized city. We had dinner at an authentic British Pub (Shepherd's Pie, what else?) and went next door to Java Joe's where the above latte was delicately prepared. Des Moines' architecture is as diverse as its politics, but blended nicely with the center piece being the state capital, thought to be the most pristine in the country.
My faith in this city, its people and the process of vetting the candidates for President has been restored. Iowans take this responsibility seriously and I would oppose taking it away from them.
I decided on a strategy course correction. First of all, I am going to fly home early as I believe I can accomplish all I want to in the next couple of days. I have also discovered that my role in this process will be that of a caucus tourist/political blogger. (Tom mentioned that his daughter also spent a couple of days at the Huckabee Camp and it was just as disorganized then as it was today which I am sure speaks to his lack of preparedness for his rapid assent) So in the spirit of Iowa, I am going to cast my vote back to the process. The plan for the next two days is to attend rallies/speeches/events for some of the major candidates, afternoons blogging from downtown hotel lobbies and then tomorrow evening and Sunday night I plan to hang out at a couple of the downtown hotspots seeing who I might see.
Thanks Delphi for reminding who I am and in case you are wondering, Tom's mom will be caucusing for Hillary, Tom's dad will be staying in Arizona (although he would be supporting Paul) and Tom, well he's a Rudy guy.
Day 1 - I Want to Go Home (Part 1)
Delphi, an oracle at the temple of Apollo in ancient Greece, has carved into the wall these two sayings: "Know Thyself" and "Nothing to Excess". Man were they on to something.
I arrived in Iowa after spending an hour with a brilliant young law student named Jed who was on his way to Des Moines to work with the Romney campaign. He answered every issue I raised about his candidate and almost had me convinced to come to Dale's side. I was even more impressed that this young man has been volunteering at the Boston HQ for Romney since September and if things break well for him here, could find himself working in a significant role in a national campaign.
I also realized that I am to old to be stumping around Iowa on this crazy adventure. Once I had checked into my hotel (man, they need a Ritz in Des Moines) I headed for downtown to begin my sure to be important work at Huck's HQ. I entered the storefront off Locust St (right next to Ron Paul's HQ ironically) to find three young people sitting behind desks and it fit my West Wing Santos image of the unexpected rise of the Governor. I expected to take the fourth desk and start making my impact. But next I was ushered to the offices upstairs. More young people and a couple of older folks who looked in charge. Now I know phone rooms. I have 25 telemarketers who work for our company and I personally helped outfit their work environment. This was no Casablanca phone room with a strip view.
I was introduced to the middle aged man who after asking my name twice introduced me to Jackie as Alvin Lee. Once I corrected him, Jackie remembered a vague conversation we had a week ago. While I saw my name on her list, she asked again for information on my background that I had previously given her four times in two different forms of communication. Then she asked about my experience. "Well, I have a marketing and theology background." "No, I mean campaign experience." "You're looking at it." The next ten minutes was spent with these two well meaning adults explaining to me how and where to park my car and get back to the office and I had to fight off an escort to help get me back. "Don't worry guys, I can find my way."
When I arrived back at HQ, I was handed a script and a official Huckabee cell phone and that's when it hit me. I was the next oldest guy in the room next to my new comrades. What was I doing in Iowa? Who built it and why did I come? Panic set it in. I sat down at an empty table and called Spillman (because my wife wouldn't answer in my hour of need because she was trying on jeans). I announced I would be on the next plane to Vegas. I had made a huge mistake.
(Stay tuned for more after I return from dinner)
I arrived in Iowa after spending an hour with a brilliant young law student named Jed who was on his way to Des Moines to work with the Romney campaign. He answered every issue I raised about his candidate and almost had me convinced to come to Dale's side. I was even more impressed that this young man has been volunteering at the Boston HQ for Romney since September and if things break well for him here, could find himself working in a significant role in a national campaign.
I also realized that I am to old to be stumping around Iowa on this crazy adventure. Once I had checked into my hotel (man, they need a Ritz in Des Moines) I headed for downtown to begin my sure to be important work at Huck's HQ. I entered the storefront off Locust St (right next to Ron Paul's HQ ironically) to find three young people sitting behind desks and it fit my West Wing Santos image of the unexpected rise of the Governor. I expected to take the fourth desk and start making my impact. But next I was ushered to the offices upstairs. More young people and a couple of older folks who looked in charge. Now I know phone rooms. I have 25 telemarketers who work for our company and I personally helped outfit their work environment. This was no Casablanca phone room with a strip view.
I was introduced to the middle aged man who after asking my name twice introduced me to Jackie as Alvin Lee. Once I corrected him, Jackie remembered a vague conversation we had a week ago. While I saw my name on her list, she asked again for information on my background that I had previously given her four times in two different forms of communication. Then she asked about my experience. "Well, I have a marketing and theology background." "No, I mean campaign experience." "You're looking at it." The next ten minutes was spent with these two well meaning adults explaining to me how and where to park my car and get back to the office and I had to fight off an escort to help get me back. "Don't worry guys, I can find my way."
When I arrived back at HQ, I was handed a script and a official Huckabee cell phone and that's when it hit me. I was the next oldest guy in the room next to my new comrades. What was I doing in Iowa? Who built it and why did I come? Panic set it in. I sat down at an empty table and called Spillman (because my wife wouldn't answer in my hour of need because she was trying on jeans). I announced I would be on the next plane to Vegas. I had made a huge mistake.
(Stay tuned for more after I return from dinner)
Romney is the Real Deal
This week Newsmax proclaims Romney is the Real Deal. The article quotes David Keene, president of the American Conservative Union.
“Giuliani appeals to defense-oriented conservatives and can make a credible argument to some economic conservatives, but he can’t pass the giggle test with social conservatives — and doesn’t really try to do so,” says Keene. “Mike Huckabee appeals to social conservatives but has demonstrated virtually no appeal to those who focus on national defense and economic issues. Thompson may have had the potential to do what Romney is now doing, but hasn’t done so. John McCain is a hero to many national defense oriented conservatives, but he has little appeal in other quarters.”
Romney, on the other hand, has “developed into a candidate who has tried hard to appeal across these factions in the way Reagan did some decades ago,” Keene says. “Like all the others, he began with credibility issues, but as time has gone on, more and more conservatives are beginning to accept today’s Mitt Romney as the real deal rather than the caricature others are portraying.”
“Giuliani appeals to defense-oriented conservatives and can make a credible argument to some economic conservatives, but he can’t pass the giggle test with social conservatives — and doesn’t really try to do so,” says Keene. “Mike Huckabee appeals to social conservatives but has demonstrated virtually no appeal to those who focus on national defense and economic issues. Thompson may have had the potential to do what Romney is now doing, but hasn’t done so. John McCain is a hero to many national defense oriented conservatives, but he has little appeal in other quarters.”
Romney, on the other hand, has “developed into a candidate who has tried hard to appeal across these factions in the way Reagan did some decades ago,” Keene says. “Like all the others, he began with credibility issues, but as time has gone on, more and more conservatives are beginning to accept today’s Mitt Romney as the real deal rather than the caricature others are portraying.”
Nothing new about Obama
While Obama claims to be the "candidate of change", who does not adhere to "rigid ideology", and can "bring the country together", Kimberly Strassel points out that the candidate's vision for America is to the left of Speaker Nancy Pelosi's agenda that has been held up in Congress by centrist members of her own party. Obama has let it slip that he believes he could carry his party to a sweeping congressional victory that would provide a "mandate for change" referencing the Dems' current inability to advance their agenda with their thin majorities.
Strassel summarizes, "That doesn't sound like a man who wants to work with Republicans toward a bipartisan era. It sounds like a man who wants to crush his opponents at the polls, and then bulldoze his agenda through an enfeebled opposition. There isn't anything necessarily wrong with that; it's what politicians have been trying to do for decades. But it's certainly nothing new."
Four of the last five Iowa polls show Hillary has pushed back in front of him by a thin margin. In a dangerous world, E.J. Dionne wonders if Democratic Iowa caucus goers may be inclined to revaluate sensibility and style.
Strassel summarizes, "That doesn't sound like a man who wants to work with Republicans toward a bipartisan era. It sounds like a man who wants to crush his opponents at the polls, and then bulldoze his agenda through an enfeebled opposition. There isn't anything necessarily wrong with that; it's what politicians have been trying to do for decades. But it's certainly nothing new."
Four of the last five Iowa polls show Hillary has pushed back in front of him by a thin margin. In a dangerous world, E.J. Dionne wonders if Democratic Iowa caucus goers may be inclined to revaluate sensibility and style.
Wheels up
At 6:30am this morning, I will be off from Raleigh to Des Moines changing planes in Milwaukee. It is being said that neither party has had a race this close in fifty years, much less both races so tight with Iowa now a statistical dead heat on both sides. This morning I am asking myself why I would leave my family for the longest stretch of time in my recent memory to go to the middle of the country where the temps are not going to exceed freezing for the foreseeable future all at my own expense. At some level, I am embarking to live out a passion that has plagued me since I was a eighth grader in Youth Legislature (similar to Boys State) in Mississippi. But I also believe that this election is truly one of those historic, culture changing moments in American history and perhaps the uniqueness of horse race, the polarized country (depending on who you read), and my own internal desire to see a real change in the direction that America is heading will provide me companionship, warmth and an experience no money could buy.
The plane is scheduled on time. Wheels down in Des Moines 9:38am CST.
The plane is scheduled on time. Wheels down in Des Moines 9:38am CST.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Bhutto Assassination May Change the Gameplan
"The past three months have seen an odd turn in the presidential primary process in both parties — a turn away from the key issues confronting the United States and toward emotional and social vapor. The success of the surge in Iraq, coupled with the bizarre “we’re safe” reading of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, drained some of the passion from the anti-war fervor in the Democratic primary electorate and from the hawkish fervor of the Republican primary electorate. In their place came the Christian identity-politics rise of Mike Huckabee on the Republican side and the “we need a nice new politics” rise of Barack Obama on the Democratic side." - John Podhoretz, Contentions
This is BIG news partly because it turns the attention back to foriegn policy issues (as Podhoretz speaks to above) and partly due to the shortened calendar with one week till the Iowa Caucus. No doubt McCain benefits as the GOP will be reminded that there is still a need for a strong President, not just a nice guy. The MSM will also have a new story for several cycles which takes both Huckabee and Obama off the front pages.
Interestingly enough, I believe Huck and Obama are indelibly connected in this election. They both represent a turn from the politics of yesterday to a new politics of tomorrow. But they both take a hit in the political world of today with Bhutto's assassination.
"Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) may also see a political advantage from the tragedy in Pakistan, because Bhutto’s killing undercuts Huckabee’s folksy shtick. Huckabee has shown little grasp of foreign policy and was embarrassed before Christmas by a Foreign Affairs article under his byline that did not take the topic seriously." - M. Allen, J. Martin & B. Smith, The Politico
Unfortunately for my camp, the news is not good. Huck is falling back in the polls (Romney's negative warfare seems to be working) and the good ole boy image will struggle to stand up to a new perceived threat even though that threat is more feeling and less factual. Perception with seven days to go is more reality that Huck needs it to be. He jumped out early on this issue (nice to have Ed Rollins actually inform him of breaking news of the foreign front this time) but he will need to show himself more than a good preacher wanting to make it all better. This is his opportunity to show himself a serious leader for serious times.
More Added -------
This is not what Huck needed.
"ORLANDO, FLA. -- With about 150 supporters crowded around a podium set up on the tarmac of Orlando Executive airport (and about 20 Ron Paul supporters waving signs outside) Mike Huckabee strode out to the strains of “Right Now” by Van Halen and immediately addressed the Bhutto situation, expressing “our sincere concern and apologies for what has happened in Pakistan.”
[**UPDATE: The Huckabee campaign later clarified the last quote, telling CBS News: "Gov. Huckabee while speaking at a campaign event earlier this morning in Florida intended to extend his deepest sympathies to the people of Pakistan when he used the word 'apologies.' He is outraged and saddened by the attack and the loss of a world leader whose life he believes was a profile in courage."]"
This is BIG news partly because it turns the attention back to foriegn policy issues (as Podhoretz speaks to above) and partly due to the shortened calendar with one week till the Iowa Caucus. No doubt McCain benefits as the GOP will be reminded that there is still a need for a strong President, not just a nice guy. The MSM will also have a new story for several cycles which takes both Huckabee and Obama off the front pages.
Interestingly enough, I believe Huck and Obama are indelibly connected in this election. They both represent a turn from the politics of yesterday to a new politics of tomorrow. But they both take a hit in the political world of today with Bhutto's assassination.
"Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) may also see a political advantage from the tragedy in Pakistan, because Bhutto’s killing undercuts Huckabee’s folksy shtick. Huckabee has shown little grasp of foreign policy and was embarrassed before Christmas by a Foreign Affairs article under his byline that did not take the topic seriously." - M. Allen, J. Martin & B. Smith, The Politico
Unfortunately for my camp, the news is not good. Huck is falling back in the polls (Romney's negative warfare seems to be working) and the good ole boy image will struggle to stand up to a new perceived threat even though that threat is more feeling and less factual. Perception with seven days to go is more reality that Huck needs it to be. He jumped out early on this issue (nice to have Ed Rollins actually inform him of breaking news of the foreign front this time) but he will need to show himself more than a good preacher wanting to make it all better. This is his opportunity to show himself a serious leader for serious times.
More Added -------
This is not what Huck needed.
"ORLANDO, FLA. -- With about 150 supporters crowded around a podium set up on the tarmac of Orlando Executive airport (and about 20 Ron Paul supporters waving signs outside) Mike Huckabee strode out to the strains of “Right Now” by Van Halen and immediately addressed the Bhutto situation, expressing “our sincere concern and apologies for what has happened in Pakistan.”
[**UPDATE: The Huckabee campaign later clarified the last quote, telling CBS News: "Gov. Huckabee while speaking at a campaign event earlier this morning in Florida intended to extend his deepest sympathies to the people of Pakistan when he used the word 'apologies.' He is outraged and saddened by the attack and the loss of a world leader whose life he believes was a profile in courage."]"
McCain's Surge (Fueled by Justin's Endorsement?)
In GOP's Last Man Standing, Robert Novak suggests that McCain is on track to win the party nomination. Additionally he points out that Huckabee's Republicanism is even less orthodox than McCain's and seems unviable beyond Iowa.
While McCain has collected the endorsement of the conservative Manchester Union Leader, he has also been the favorite of liberals everywhere from the Boston Globe, Concord Monitor, Des Moines Register, to Senate colleague Joe Lieberman. It should be noted that Romney has collected endorsements from the grassroots conservative movement including National Review, American Conservative Union, Club for Growth, and Judge Robert Bork.
In an interesting move, the Union Leader editorial board has decided that endorsing McCain was not enough. They are now on offense against Romney attacking him on everything from his money to his hair. They mostly challenge his authenticity, which seems to be Romney's biggest hurdle with swing voters who will drift from conservative philosophy to support a personality that they trust, even if it is a moderate like McCain or Huckabee. I also contend, that if one is casting their primary vote with November in mind, McCain is not a bad choice. While he should be a slam dunk over any of the Dems, America likes a fresh face and Obama would be troublesome. McCain would be painted as an old, grouchy war monger against someone like Obama (think Clinton v Dole).
McCain's surge in Iowa has brought Huckabee back to the pack. Romney is consistently above 25%. Romney support in Iowa is deep and wide. Huckabee had pulled away to 35% when McCain was in the single digits. McCain is now in the doubles, and Huck's lead has been cut to within the margin of error.
While McCain has collected the endorsement of the conservative Manchester Union Leader, he has also been the favorite of liberals everywhere from the Boston Globe, Concord Monitor, Des Moines Register, to Senate colleague Joe Lieberman. It should be noted that Romney has collected endorsements from the grassroots conservative movement including National Review, American Conservative Union, Club for Growth, and Judge Robert Bork.
In an interesting move, the Union Leader editorial board has decided that endorsing McCain was not enough. They are now on offense against Romney attacking him on everything from his money to his hair. They mostly challenge his authenticity, which seems to be Romney's biggest hurdle with swing voters who will drift from conservative philosophy to support a personality that they trust, even if it is a moderate like McCain or Huckabee. I also contend, that if one is casting their primary vote with November in mind, McCain is not a bad choice. While he should be a slam dunk over any of the Dems, America likes a fresh face and Obama would be troublesome. McCain would be painted as an old, grouchy war monger against someone like Obama (think Clinton v Dole).
McCain's surge in Iowa has brought Huckabee back to the pack. Romney is consistently above 25%. Romney support in Iowa is deep and wide. Huckabee had pulled away to 35% when McCain was in the single digits. McCain is now in the doubles, and Huck's lead has been cut to within the margin of error.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Same Party, Different Style
Laura Meckler and Elizabeth Holmes present both sides of a stark choice for Iowa Republicans in this morning's Wall Street Journal.
When I think about the contrast, the following example from the article summarizes the GOP choices in a nutshell:
Last week in Waterloo, Iowa, Mr. Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, talked about the challenge of overhauling the tax system this way: "In the South, we say if you can't fix it with duct tape and WD-40 it can't be fixed."
A week earlier, Mr. Romney showed a PowerPoint presentation charting the budget deficit. "See how big it gets?" he said, pointing to a line tracking entitlement spending. "This line is the historical average of how much money the federal government takes away from taxpayers."
When I think about the contrast, the following example from the article summarizes the GOP choices in a nutshell:
Last week in Waterloo, Iowa, Mr. Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, talked about the challenge of overhauling the tax system this way: "In the South, we say if you can't fix it with duct tape and WD-40 it can't be fixed."
A week earlier, Mr. Romney showed a PowerPoint presentation charting the budget deficit. "See how big it gets?" he said, pointing to a line tracking entitlement spending. "This line is the historical average of how much money the federal government takes away from taxpayers."
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
A Part of the Action...
Politico provides some inside scoop on the celebrity of the Iowa Caucus (excerpts below)
"For many in the nation’s capital, New Year’s Eve often means a quick escape to a more exciting destination beyond the Beltway.
This year, rather than scattering to Manhattan or some other hip locale, it seems all of political Washington is relocating to Iowa, where the current daytime temperature hovers around freezing.
With the Democratic and Republican caucuses moved up to Jan. 3 – rather than Jan. 19, as it was in 2004 – there will be far more newspaper reporters, television producers, bloggers and assorted media personalities roaming the streets of Des Moines this New Year’s.
But will the BlackBerrys get switched off long enough to enjoy dinner and a few glasses of champagne?"
"MSNBC’s Tucker Carlson told Politico that he has a “philosophical commitment to dinner” on the road, and has done so whether reporting from Beirut, Baghdad or New Hampshire.
“You don’t want to be a worker bee,” Carlson said. “You don’t want to become a nasty little careerist like some people.”
Carlson said he’s planning a New Year’s Day dinner with friends, perhaps at the famous 801 Steak and Chop House (801 Grand Ave.)."
"For those not privileged (or lucky?) enough to have received an invite to Carlson’s dinner, Carrie Giddins and Mary Tiffany, communications directors for the Iowa Democratic and Republican Parties, respectively, have organized the Raucous before the Caucus."
_______________
So I have sent away to try and get on the list for "Raucous before the Caucus" and will try and make reservations for 801 Steak & Chop House. There is a Huckabee reception New Year's Eve as well.
My goal is to get two candids of other candidates, two candids of TV pundits (preferably Carlson and Chris Matthews), and snap shots of other well known political operatives. I also hope to have multiple conversations in coffee shops and hotel lobbies across Des Moines. Stay tuned for the inside scoop.
"For many in the nation’s capital, New Year’s Eve often means a quick escape to a more exciting destination beyond the Beltway.
This year, rather than scattering to Manhattan or some other hip locale, it seems all of political Washington is relocating to Iowa, where the current daytime temperature hovers around freezing.
With the Democratic and Republican caucuses moved up to Jan. 3 – rather than Jan. 19, as it was in 2004 – there will be far more newspaper reporters, television producers, bloggers and assorted media personalities roaming the streets of Des Moines this New Year’s.
But will the BlackBerrys get switched off long enough to enjoy dinner and a few glasses of champagne?"
"MSNBC’s Tucker Carlson told Politico that he has a “philosophical commitment to dinner” on the road, and has done so whether reporting from Beirut, Baghdad or New Hampshire.
“You don’t want to be a worker bee,” Carlson said. “You don’t want to become a nasty little careerist like some people.”
Carlson said he’s planning a New Year’s Day dinner with friends, perhaps at the famous 801 Steak and Chop House (801 Grand Ave.)."
"For those not privileged (or lucky?) enough to have received an invite to Carlson’s dinner, Carrie Giddins and Mary Tiffany, communications directors for the Iowa Democratic and Republican Parties, respectively, have organized the Raucous before the Caucus."
_______________
So I have sent away to try and get on the list for "Raucous before the Caucus" and will try and make reservations for 801 Steak & Chop House. There is a Huckabee reception New Year's Eve as well.
My goal is to get two candids of other candidates, two candids of TV pundits (preferably Carlson and Chris Matthews), and snap shots of other well known political operatives. I also hope to have multiple conversations in coffee shops and hotel lobbies across Des Moines. Stay tuned for the inside scoop.
Saturday, December 22, 2007
A little more history...
I had an opportunity to break bread with Jonathan at Daniel Boulud Brasserie during a November trip to Las Vegas. We talked at length about the candidates on each side, key issues, electability, and our observations from the debates. Jonathan brings a great perspective as he has seen every question and every answer from every debate.
As we travel to Iowa, one wonders if this meeting of the minds represented important first steps in transforming our political passion into action.
There were no members of the press on hand to capture the moment, but I did get a photo later in the week with Indy legend Mario Andretti.
One of many items that we agreed on was that we needed to hear a lot more from Justin Butters. His credibility and expertise on matters of defense and foreign affairs makes him our most trusted advisor. Justin, I look forward to your insight at this important inflection point in American history.
As we travel to Iowa, one wonders if this meeting of the minds represented important first steps in transforming our political passion into action.
There were no members of the press on hand to capture the moment, but I did get a photo later in the week with Indy legend Mario Andretti.One of many items that we agreed on was that we needed to hear a lot more from Justin Butters. His credibility and expertise on matters of defense and foreign affairs makes him our most trusted advisor. Justin, I look forward to your insight at this important inflection point in American history.
Justin Enters the Fray
Well, with less than two weeks before the first caucus, I guess it's time to start paying attention. I enjoy Jonathan and Dale's misguided passion, and agree with both of them.....Huckabee would have made a good Democrat 30 years ago and Romney wants this job too badly to make a good president. I offer the following alternative, the man I flirted with in 2000: John McCain.
Great write up here
Key points, McCain has been positively Churchillian in his steadfast desire to see us to VICTORY in Iraq. And, the strategy he has supported for years, more troops, is WORKING. For you independents out there, one candidate has gotten the endorsement of both the Boston Globe (liberal) and Manchester Union-Leader (conservative). I look for McCain to be the comeback story coming out of NH.
Headline this "Jonathan Might Have Been Right". Years ago Jonathan forecast that GWB might go down as one of our greatest presidents. A couple of months ago, that looked like a foolish prediction (much as most of his financial and sports picks have turned out to be). But now...think of what GWB's legacy may (MAY) be in a couple of years. We win in Iraq with Bush staying the course when nobody, NOBODY, supported him. In Petraeus, Bush found his right general after three years (the same amount of time it took Lincoln to find Grant). After 9/11, NO attacks on US soil. Taliban overthrown. Longest sustained period of economic growth. Iran and North Korea loom as big problems, but remember the Berlin Wall fell 10 months after Reagan left office, and his legacy improved immeasurably after that. If Iran or NK collapse peacefully (or rejoin the international community) during or soon after his term.....GWB will have some legacy.
Great write up here
Key points, McCain has been positively Churchillian in his steadfast desire to see us to VICTORY in Iraq. And, the strategy he has supported for years, more troops, is WORKING. For you independents out there, one candidate has gotten the endorsement of both the Boston Globe (liberal) and Manchester Union-Leader (conservative). I look for McCain to be the comeback story coming out of NH.
Headline this "Jonathan Might Have Been Right". Years ago Jonathan forecast that GWB might go down as one of our greatest presidents. A couple of months ago, that looked like a foolish prediction (much as most of his financial and sports picks have turned out to be). But now...think of what GWB's legacy may (MAY) be in a couple of years. We win in Iraq with Bush staying the course when nobody, NOBODY, supported him. In Petraeus, Bush found his right general after three years (the same amount of time it took Lincoln to find Grant). After 9/11, NO attacks on US soil. Taliban overthrown. Longest sustained period of economic growth. Iran and North Korea loom as big problems, but remember the Berlin Wall fell 10 months after Reagan left office, and his legacy improved immeasurably after that. If Iran or NK collapse peacefully (or rejoin the international community) during or soon after his term.....GWB will have some legacy.
Friday, December 21, 2007
The Big Tent GOP
E.J. Dionne paints the picture that the Republican Party faces a serious crisis as "party faithful" attempt to wrestle control away from the "party establishment". Some sense can be made of it if we just define a few terms.
Establishment - These people are bound by ideas. They are true economic, social, and national defense conservatives in the mold of William F. Buckley, Jr. These people are actually the party faithful (misidentified by Dionne).
Faithful - Incorrectly identified in the article. These folks are liberals, moderates, independents, and populists that do not have a home in the modern Democratic Party -- a party whose platform is overtly hostile to mainstream American family values.
Think about it. Why is Mike Huckabee a Republican? Shouldn't a big government, tax raising governor that doesn't like free trade, and has a soft record on criminals be running on the other side? Mike Huckabee is a Republican because his evangelical faith defines him, his conviction is genuine and always has been, he respects life and family, he understands the importance of the 2nd Amendment, and he loves our troops and our country. My hunch is that Huckabee would be polling somewhere behind Joe Biden if he were running as a Democrat with those positions.
Where E.J. Dionne sees a party cracking up, I see a big-tent party that has something for everybody. As a member of the GOP, I enjoy having Mike Huckabee, his campaign, and his followers bringing their vision for America to our side of the debate. Only a generation ago, Huckabee might have been a Southern Democrat.
When Dionne predicts that "Huckabee will be crushed by the establishment" he conjures images of Wall Street fat cats parterning with their Inside-the-Beltway buddies to take out the little guy. In reality, the establishment are conservatives bound by ideas (the real party faithful) across this great land who like both Huckabee and Romney on social issues, but believe Romney's vision for America is closer to theirs on economic and national security matters.
Establishment - These people are bound by ideas. They are true economic, social, and national defense conservatives in the mold of William F. Buckley, Jr. These people are actually the party faithful (misidentified by Dionne).
Faithful - Incorrectly identified in the article. These folks are liberals, moderates, independents, and populists that do not have a home in the modern Democratic Party -- a party whose platform is overtly hostile to mainstream American family values.
Think about it. Why is Mike Huckabee a Republican? Shouldn't a big government, tax raising governor that doesn't like free trade, and has a soft record on criminals be running on the other side? Mike Huckabee is a Republican because his evangelical faith defines him, his conviction is genuine and always has been, he respects life and family, he understands the importance of the 2nd Amendment, and he loves our troops and our country. My hunch is that Huckabee would be polling somewhere behind Joe Biden if he were running as a Democrat with those positions.
Where E.J. Dionne sees a party cracking up, I see a big-tent party that has something for everybody. As a member of the GOP, I enjoy having Mike Huckabee, his campaign, and his followers bringing their vision for America to our side of the debate. Only a generation ago, Huckabee might have been a Southern Democrat.
When Dionne predicts that "Huckabee will be crushed by the establishment" he conjures images of Wall Street fat cats parterning with their Inside-the-Beltway buddies to take out the little guy. In reality, the establishment are conservatives bound by ideas (the real party faithful) across this great land who like both Huckabee and Romney on social issues, but believe Romney's vision for America is closer to theirs on economic and national security matters.
Huck's Rebellion?
A couple of good articles highlighting the movement behind Huck's surge:
"If you had to bet, you'd wager that the Republican establishment will eventually crush Huckabee. But the rebellion he is leading is a warning to Republicans. The faithful are restive, tired of being used, and no longer willing to do the bidding of a crowd that subordinates Main Street's values to Wall Street's interests."
--E.J.Dionne, Real Clear Politics
"That may be why after seven years of Bush economic policies, sky-high fuel prices, rampant economic inequality, fears of globalization, and the shadow of recession on the horizon, these down-to-earth, hard-working Iowans may be poised to rebel against the politics of inevitability. There is an inherent populism in proving to the political establishment that ordinary Iowans -- not the TV talking heads -- decide who wins the caucuses. Something is stirring in Iowa that does not fit into traditional political categories and -- for the moment -- Huckabee is its rags-to-riches embodiment."
--Walter Shapiro, Salon.com
"If you had to bet, you'd wager that the Republican establishment will eventually crush Huckabee. But the rebellion he is leading is a warning to Republicans. The faithful are restive, tired of being used, and no longer willing to do the bidding of a crowd that subordinates Main Street's values to Wall Street's interests."
--E.J.Dionne, Real Clear Politics
"That may be why after seven years of Bush economic policies, sky-high fuel prices, rampant economic inequality, fears of globalization, and the shadow of recession on the horizon, these down-to-earth, hard-working Iowans may be poised to rebel against the politics of inevitability. There is an inherent populism in proving to the political establishment that ordinary Iowans -- not the TV talking heads -- decide who wins the caucuses. Something is stirring in Iowa that does not fit into traditional political categories and -- for the moment -- Huckabee is its rags-to-riches embodiment."
--Walter Shapiro, Salon.com
The SBC issue
Dale, that was a great quote in your last post. I read the WP article and felt it necessary to provide some personal context.
When Huckabee said, "If my own abandon me on the battlefield, it will have a chilling effect" he was addressing a group of Southern Baptist pastors in Texas. "My own" certainly references other SBC pastors, which of course he is one, not the whole of everyone who shares his faith.
But it is a good question as to why men like Richard Land and Judge Pressler don't like Mike. For that, a brief SBC history lesson. The story is told of Judge Pressler and Paige Patterson sharing beignets at Cafe Du Monde in New Orleans plotting the Fundamentalist takeover of the SBC. They developed a grand plan to win elections and make appointments to the boards of all the major seminaries and divisions securing the power of the convention. And according to the books they wrote about the takeover (the victors get to write the history) they left no prisoners and anyone who was not for them was against them (sound familiar?).
Great men, godly men were left on the outside wearing new labels like "Liberal" and "Moderate", not because it represented their theology or otherwise conservative moral beliefs, but because they would not bow to the alters of Pressler, Patterson, and Mohler. Men that I have tremendous respect for (Jim Henry of FBC Orlando and even my dad) were able to maintain some degree of an apolitical role but certainly would even now be labeled an outsider to the power people.
Part of why I like Mike is because he was one of those men. He stayed true to his own convictions and "would not be owned" by the SBC hegemony. It infuriated that group even more when he became one of the most well known and respected Governors having access to power that extended beyond the SBC circle. For guys like Land, Patterson, Pressler, and the bunch, it's not that they don't want a SBC guy as POTUS - just not that guy. Not the guy who wouldn't buy in and support their efforts to politicize faith. They wrote Huck off after he refused to bow down and they would rather Hillary win the White House than see one of their rivals in the Oval Office.
Huck is a great politician and practices his politics in the proper environment. And it is a good thing the SBC doesn't rule the world.
When Huckabee said, "If my own abandon me on the battlefield, it will have a chilling effect" he was addressing a group of Southern Baptist pastors in Texas. "My own" certainly references other SBC pastors, which of course he is one, not the whole of everyone who shares his faith.
But it is a good question as to why men like Richard Land and Judge Pressler don't like Mike. For that, a brief SBC history lesson. The story is told of Judge Pressler and Paige Patterson sharing beignets at Cafe Du Monde in New Orleans plotting the Fundamentalist takeover of the SBC. They developed a grand plan to win elections and make appointments to the boards of all the major seminaries and divisions securing the power of the convention. And according to the books they wrote about the takeover (the victors get to write the history) they left no prisoners and anyone who was not for them was against them (sound familiar?).
Great men, godly men were left on the outside wearing new labels like "Liberal" and "Moderate", not because it represented their theology or otherwise conservative moral beliefs, but because they would not bow to the alters of Pressler, Patterson, and Mohler. Men that I have tremendous respect for (Jim Henry of FBC Orlando and even my dad) were able to maintain some degree of an apolitical role but certainly would even now be labeled an outsider to the power people.
Part of why I like Mike is because he was one of those men. He stayed true to his own convictions and "would not be owned" by the SBC hegemony. It infuriated that group even more when he became one of the most well known and respected Governors having access to power that extended beyond the SBC circle. For guys like Land, Patterson, Pressler, and the bunch, it's not that they don't want a SBC guy as POTUS - just not that guy. Not the guy who wouldn't buy in and support their efforts to politicize faith. They wrote Huck off after he refused to bow down and they would rather Hillary win the White House than see one of their rivals in the Oval Office.
Huck is a great politician and practices his politics in the proper environment. And it is a good thing the SBC doesn't rule the world.
The Most Valuable Endorsement
Ronald Reagan Supreme Court nominee, Robert Bork has endorsed Mitt Romney for President. Judge Bork says, "Our next President may be called upon to make more than one Supreme Court nomination, and Governor Romney is committed to nominating judges who take their oath of office seriously and respect the rule of law in our nation. I also support Governor Romney because of his character, his integrity and his stands on the major issues facing the United States."
Judge Bork is a hero to social conservatives for his advocacy of originalism in the judiciary. The vicious liberal assault on his nomination forever cemented his status. William Rehnquist, Samuel Alito, and Robert Bork are the only 3 supreme court nominees to ever be officially opposed by the American Civil Liberties Union.
An American legal scholar, Judge Bork appreciates the important role of Article VI of the US Constitution which states, "no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States."
Contrary to the spirit of our nation's founding documents, Mike Huckabee often implies that people that share his faith should support his candidacy. He recently stated, "If my own abandon me on the battlefield, it will have a chilling effect."
Judge Bork is a hero to social conservatives for his advocacy of originalism in the judiciary. The vicious liberal assault on his nomination forever cemented his status. William Rehnquist, Samuel Alito, and Robert Bork are the only 3 supreme court nominees to ever be officially opposed by the American Civil Liberties Union.
An American legal scholar, Judge Bork appreciates the important role of Article VI of the US Constitution which states, "no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States."
Contrary to the spirit of our nation's founding documents, Mike Huckabee often implies that people that share his faith should support his candidacy. He recently stated, "If my own abandon me on the battlefield, it will have a chilling effect."
Thursday, December 20, 2007
the Southern Baptist vs the Mormon
I have to admit that the article from Slate does not paint the SBC in the greatest light, but I find it pretty accurate according to my experience. Religion is playing a significant role in the GOP race. I appreciate Huck's background and I believe he has been unfairly criticized for playing a religious card in the campaign. The truth is there was no way for him to have a chance and the Christian vs Mormon historical dilemma not be to be raised.
I'll provide a couple of excerpts for those looking for a quick read.
"As the race for the Republican presidential nomination heats up, the competing theologies of the front-runners are getting as much attention as their differing policy proposals. Mitt Romney, a devout Mormon and the former governor of Massachusetts, faces a tough challenge from Mike Huckabee, a Southern Baptist minister and one-time governor of Arkansas. Huckabee's surge in Iowa owes itself in part to the strength of evangelical voters there who like his values and dislike his competitor's faith."
"And the SBC got serious about tempering the expansion of what was becoming the fastest-growing religion in the world. They developed programs, trained pastors, hosted Mormonism-awareness conferences, and published articles to help spread the message to Southern Baptists that Mormonism was a dangerous cult religion they had to avoid."
"On Dec. 6, Mitt Romney delivered his much-anticipated "Faith in America" speech. Romney promised that no Mormon leader would direct his presidential decisions and declared that Jesus was "the son of God and the savior of mankind." The next day, the Southern Baptist Convention published its last article in a three-part series on Mormonism on an SBC Web site. The articles briefly explored the Mormon Church's history and outlined key differences between Mormonism and evangelical Christianity. Deeming it "a false religion," the articles also distinguished Mormonism as a "theological cult" rather than a "sociological cult" because it held important doctrinal differences with orthodox Christianity but was not helmed by a controlling leader."
"When the time comes for Republican Southern Baptists to choose a candidate to back in the primary, they will be thinking as much of Sunday school lessons and church educational programs about Mormonism as they will of competing policy proposals."
I'll provide a couple of excerpts for those looking for a quick read.
"As the race for the Republican presidential nomination heats up, the competing theologies of the front-runners are getting as much attention as their differing policy proposals. Mitt Romney, a devout Mormon and the former governor of Massachusetts, faces a tough challenge from Mike Huckabee, a Southern Baptist minister and one-time governor of Arkansas. Huckabee's surge in Iowa owes itself in part to the strength of evangelical voters there who like his values and dislike his competitor's faith."
"And the SBC got serious about tempering the expansion of what was becoming the fastest-growing religion in the world. They developed programs, trained pastors, hosted Mormonism-awareness conferences, and published articles to help spread the message to Southern Baptists that Mormonism was a dangerous cult religion they had to avoid."
"On Dec. 6, Mitt Romney delivered his much-anticipated "Faith in America" speech. Romney promised that no Mormon leader would direct his presidential decisions and declared that Jesus was "the son of God and the savior of mankind." The next day, the Southern Baptist Convention published its last article in a three-part series on Mormonism on an SBC Web site. The articles briefly explored the Mormon Church's history and outlined key differences between Mormonism and evangelical Christianity. Deeming it "a false religion," the articles also distinguished Mormonism as a "theological cult" rather than a "sociological cult" because it held important doctrinal differences with orthodox Christianity but was not helmed by a controlling leader."
"When the time comes for Republican Southern Baptists to choose a candidate to back in the primary, they will be thinking as much of Sunday school lessons and church educational programs about Mormonism as they will of competing policy proposals."
"It's not your money, Mike..."
"...it's the taxpayers' money." In a recent Republican Presidential Debate, Mitt Romney defined an important difference between his position on immigration and Mike Huckabee's view.
The immigration issue is the hottest and most misunderstood of this campaign. Most Americans with immigration anxiety are not nativist as protrayed by the media and some presidential candidates. We understand that our freedoms and democracy are preserved by a system that respects the rule of law.
In fairness to Mr. Huckabee, federal lawmakers have failed to offer Americans meaningful resolution on the issue. As Arkansas governor, any change could only take place at the margins, not in comprehensive way. Mr. Huckabee acted in way that he thought was best for Arkansas. Republicans are fortunate to have a man with the integrity and compassion of Mike Huckabee as a part of this debate.
I look forward to Iowa Republicans examining Mitt Romney's respect for taxpaying citizens and respect for a system that is built upon the rule of law. They will then be able to contrast Mike Huckabee's casual use of taxpayer money whenever he determines "it's the right thing to do."
The immigration issue is the hottest and most misunderstood of this campaign. Most Americans with immigration anxiety are not nativist as protrayed by the media and some presidential candidates. We understand that our freedoms and democracy are preserved by a system that respects the rule of law.
In fairness to Mr. Huckabee, federal lawmakers have failed to offer Americans meaningful resolution on the issue. As Arkansas governor, any change could only take place at the margins, not in comprehensive way. Mr. Huckabee acted in way that he thought was best for Arkansas. Republicans are fortunate to have a man with the integrity and compassion of Mike Huckabee as a part of this debate.
I look forward to Iowa Republicans examining Mitt Romney's respect for taxpaying citizens and respect for a system that is built upon the rule of law. They will then be able to contrast Mike Huckabee's casual use of taxpayer money whenever he determines "it's the right thing to do."
Immigrate This!
So let's talk Immigration. Huckabee has been hammered by Romney both in print, on TV, and on the stump as being soft on immigration. The primary evidence he presents is Huck's support for an amendment to an education bill in Arkansas. In cooperation with federal mandates to educate children of illegal immigrants in American schools, Huckabee proposed that those same children, having performed to exceptional standards and thus qualifying for a state college scholarship, should be able to receive those monies providing they maintained standards and became citizens of the United States.
In a recent debate, Romney expressed that those monies should only be available to citizens.
Why?
We have a significant immigration problem in this country to say the least. The primary issue is that some business owners employ illegals because it is a cheaper form of labor and our free market demands that these business owners operate in that manner unless otherwise required to act differently. All of the candidates have expressed grand immigration reform. The two major components are to stop immigrants from entering the country illegally and to figure out how to handle the millions of illegals already in our country.
So why would Huck's proposal be a bad one? Let's face it. No matter the conclusion on what to do with illegals in this country, it will cost a significant amount of money to fix the problem. It seems to me that for the small percentage of money that would be provided to the children of illegals who had exceptional educational history and desired to continue on in higher education as well as become citizens is a great use of our financial resources to actually help fix the issue even if it is scooping the cream off the top. These are the brightest of those here illegally. Why would we not want to make a way for them to be citizens, continue to go to school, get good jobs, and pay taxes?
Education is the great equalizer. I would expand Huck's program nationally. States should be encouraged to provide scholarships to their children who have excelled in the classroom (a la Georgia's Hope Scholarship). In partnership with the Federal Government that scholarship should be extended to illegals who meet those same standards AND begin the path to citizenship that would be completed by graduation from college. The economists among us could be more accurate, but I would expect that a lifetime of earnings and subsequent taxes paid back to the Federal Government and States would at a minimum pay for the initial scholarship monies provided.
How does an honest attempt to try and actually deal with an issue make Huck soft on immigration? He is for a fence, tougher immigration standards, et al like all the rest. And he actually has a good idea (that could ultimately pay for itself) for beginning to address part of the bigger issue as to what do we do with 3 millions illegals already here.
And to public knowledge, he has not on multiple occasions employed illegals to do yard work.
In a recent debate, Romney expressed that those monies should only be available to citizens.
Why?
We have a significant immigration problem in this country to say the least. The primary issue is that some business owners employ illegals because it is a cheaper form of labor and our free market demands that these business owners operate in that manner unless otherwise required to act differently. All of the candidates have expressed grand immigration reform. The two major components are to stop immigrants from entering the country illegally and to figure out how to handle the millions of illegals already in our country.
So why would Huck's proposal be a bad one? Let's face it. No matter the conclusion on what to do with illegals in this country, it will cost a significant amount of money to fix the problem. It seems to me that for the small percentage of money that would be provided to the children of illegals who had exceptional educational history and desired to continue on in higher education as well as become citizens is a great use of our financial resources to actually help fix the issue even if it is scooping the cream off the top. These are the brightest of those here illegally. Why would we not want to make a way for them to be citizens, continue to go to school, get good jobs, and pay taxes?
Education is the great equalizer. I would expand Huck's program nationally. States should be encouraged to provide scholarships to their children who have excelled in the classroom (a la Georgia's Hope Scholarship). In partnership with the Federal Government that scholarship should be extended to illegals who meet those same standards AND begin the path to citizenship that would be completed by graduation from college. The economists among us could be more accurate, but I would expect that a lifetime of earnings and subsequent taxes paid back to the Federal Government and States would at a minimum pay for the initial scholarship monies provided.
How does an honest attempt to try and actually deal with an issue make Huck soft on immigration? He is for a fence, tougher immigration standards, et al like all the rest. And he actually has a good idea (that could ultimately pay for itself) for beginning to address part of the bigger issue as to what do we do with 3 millions illegals already here.
And to public knowledge, he has not on multiple occasions employed illegals to do yard work.
Wide Open Race, A Case for Mitt Romney
Today's Wall Street Journal poll shows that Mitt Romney has pulled even with Rudy Giuliani nationally, yet the top five candidates are separated by just nine percentage points. This is the highest Governor Romney has ever polled nationally. As the campaign transitions from the superficial phase to the serious phase, voters are looking for serious candidates.
Mitt Romney will benefit from this turning point as he offers serious solutions. He recognizes our 21st century new world without boundaries. Information, labor, goods, capital, and terrorism all easily flow around the globe with less respect to borders than at any time in the history of civilization.
Governor Romney sees that America's role is not to deny this reality, but to be a strong leader. America’s strength starts with parents teaching their children values in the home, an economic system that embraces free enterprise, and a brave and patriotic military that will defend our liberties. America's strength has been the best ally peace has ever known. Our strength has flowed from the inherent goodness of our people, a people that time and again has paid the ultimate price for freedom, for faith, and for family.
The Romney campaign e-mailed me this morning confirming my assignment in the Quad Cities. I will report on January 2. This is going to be fun!
Mitt Romney will benefit from this turning point as he offers serious solutions. He recognizes our 21st century new world without boundaries. Information, labor, goods, capital, and terrorism all easily flow around the globe with less respect to borders than at any time in the history of civilization.
Governor Romney sees that America's role is not to deny this reality, but to be a strong leader. America’s strength starts with parents teaching their children values in the home, an economic system that embraces free enterprise, and a brave and patriotic military that will defend our liberties. America's strength has been the best ally peace has ever known. Our strength has flowed from the inherent goodness of our people, a people that time and again has paid the ultimate price for freedom, for faith, and for family.
The Romney campaign e-mailed me this morning confirming my assignment in the Quad Cities. I will report on January 2. This is going to be fun!
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
America the Beautiful
Today, Time Magazine glorifies Vladimir Putin as their "Person of the Year". They say this is not an endorsement, but a recognition of his earth-changing leadership while admitting this has come "at significant cost to the principles and ideas that free nations prize." They praise "an extraordinary feat of leadership in imposing stability on a nation that has rarely known it and brought Russia back to the table of world power."
The United States of America is no Russia. We are a great beacon of democracy. The Jan 3 caucuses in Iowa embody our freedom as Americans to shape our direction as nation. In Iowa, the candidates must face the voters. While shallow soundbytes may pass for a platform with those who get their election news from Jon Stewart or Katie Couric, Hawkeye state voters demand thoughtful answers from individuals with integrity. Iowa caucus goers represent the strength of a great America.
A member of our Political Action Committee told me yesterday about his experience working the Iowa caucuses in Marshalltown (1 hr NE of Des Moines) in 1996 and 2000. He has me really excited about the personal touch of Iowa's retail politics, and the importance of having a lot of "boots on the ground" for your candidate. The capstone of his 2000 experience was taking the microphone in a high school auditorium to share why he was going to support George W. Bush. Next, the caucus goers retreated to their classrooms by precinct...and I think you know the rest of the story.
Stay tuned for more updates!
The United States of America is no Russia. We are a great beacon of democracy. The Jan 3 caucuses in Iowa embody our freedom as Americans to shape our direction as nation. In Iowa, the candidates must face the voters. While shallow soundbytes may pass for a platform with those who get their election news from Jon Stewart or Katie Couric, Hawkeye state voters demand thoughtful answers from individuals with integrity. Iowa caucus goers represent the strength of a great America.
A member of our Political Action Committee told me yesterday about his experience working the Iowa caucuses in Marshalltown (1 hr NE of Des Moines) in 1996 and 2000. He has me really excited about the personal touch of Iowa's retail politics, and the importance of having a lot of "boots on the ground" for your candidate. The capstone of his 2000 experience was taking the microphone in a high school auditorium to share why he was going to support George W. Bush. Next, the caucus goers retreated to their classrooms by precinct...and I think you know the rest of the story.
Stay tuned for more updates!
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
What's in Your Wallet
Presidential aspirant and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee doesn't have to worry about making bail if he gets arrested on the campaign trail, or so the American Automobile Association membership card he carries in his wallet promises.
Wednesday at the Beacon Drive-In, I saw Huckabee pull out his wallet, trying to make a point about tamper-proof identification for immigrants. Inspired, I approached him moments later and said, "Show me the entire contents of your wallet and I will truly know you."
Huckabee: "Err ... OK."
He carried a handgun permit, frequent-flier club cards, five credit cards, two gift cards, a Marriott card, an AARP card, his hunting and fishing permit, expired duck stamps from last year, a slip listing the contact numbers of his band, Capitol Offense, and about $175 in cash, mostly in small bills.
He needs the frequent-flier cards because he travels on normal planes - US Airways for this trip. He needs the credit cards and cash because he pays for stuff. Some candidates have their staff handle the taxis and tips, but his national field director is his daughter, Sarah, so he's probably used to grabbing the tab.
The wallet tells me Huckabee is a fairly normal guy.
How can you not like this guy?
This Can't Be Good
"A photograph of GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney at a 1994 Planned Parenthood fund-raiser has surfaced, once again raising questions about the former Bay State’s governor’s abortion flip-flopping.
The picture, a copy of which was obtained by the Herald, shows Romney and his wife Ann at a house party fund-raiser in Scituate with Nicki Nichols Gamble, who was the president of the Planned Parenthood League of Massachusetts at the time. Romney has already downplayed ties to Planned Parenthood after revelations that Ann Romney donated $150 to the group." - Boston Herald (Web) December 18, 2008
This is the latest out of the New Hampshire area posted just after a new poll shows Romney regaining some ground in Iowa.
A Little History
-----Original Message-----
From: Jonathan Lee
Sent: Thursday, June 07, 2007 11:11 AM
To: Tim & Tasha Levert; Marlowe Guy; Justin Butters; 'Dale Winger';
Danny Yeatts
Subject: Re: I couldn't resist
For the record, I want to restate my earliest positions. From the first
GOP, the last Dem debate and the last GOP, Mike Huckabee has been the
best communicator of the bunch. He is the only Republican, including
Fred acting like a presidential candidate, that I like. Huckabee and
Obama. Those are my two picks.
So as you start reading more about Huckabee being a viable candidate,
remember you've heard that before somewhere.
JL
__________________________________________
-----Original Message-----
From: Dale Winger
Sent: Thursday, June 09, 2007 12:18 AM
To: Tim & Tasha Levert; Marlowe Guy; Justin Butters; 'Dale Winger';
Danny Yeatts
Subject: Re: I couldn't resist
I like Huckabee. He seems to be extremely comfortable with himself in the debates, and doesn't try to have the "right answer". He's clearly underfunded in this race..I was looking for some info on him..my first campaign advice would be to quickly secure the rights to: www.mikehuckabee.com. If Giuliani or McCain win the nomination, they may need a So. Baptist on the ticket to shore up the base.
Dale
From: Jonathan Lee
Sent: Thursday, June 07, 2007 11:11 AM
To: Tim & Tasha Levert; Marlowe Guy; Justin Butters; 'Dale Winger';
Danny Yeatts
Subject: Re: I couldn't resist
For the record, I want to restate my earliest positions. From the first
GOP, the last Dem debate and the last GOP, Mike Huckabee has been the
best communicator of the bunch. He is the only Republican, including
Fred acting like a presidential candidate, that I like. Huckabee and
Obama. Those are my two picks.
So as you start reading more about Huckabee being a viable candidate,
remember you've heard that before somewhere.
JL
__________________________________________
-----Original Message-----
From: Dale Winger
Sent: Thursday, June 09, 2007 12:18 AM
To: Tim & Tasha Levert; Marlowe Guy; Justin Butters; 'Dale Winger';
Danny Yeatts
Subject: Re: I couldn't resist
I like Huckabee. He seems to be extremely comfortable with himself in the debates, and doesn't try to have the "right answer". He's clearly underfunded in this race..I was looking for some info on him..my first campaign advice would be to quickly secure the rights to: www.mikehuckabee.com. If Giuliani or McCain win the nomination, they may need a So. Baptist on the ticket to shore up the base.
Dale
Prep
In many ways, Ground Game Iowa (GGI) is like the extended learning class I never took in college. To complete my total political immersion I will be reading from three different books:
1 - The Second Civil War by Ronald Brownstein
2 - American Creation by Joseph Ellis
3 - Character Makes a Difference by Mike Huckabee
1 - The Second Civil War by Ronald Brownstein
2 - American Creation by Joseph Ellis
3 - Character Makes a Difference by Mike Huckabee
Another Level
Three weeks ago, I got permission (albeit reluctant) to head to Iowa to work helping the Huckabee campaign. But as the week went on I had decided against the insanity of going to subfreezing temperatures to stuff envelopes and go door-to-door on behalf of a former SBC preacher. Then yesterday morning, after receiving Winger's announcement that he was headed to the Quad Cities area to stump for Romney, I was reinvigorated. Twenty-four hours later, I have flights, hotel, and a rental car. I have spoken with Jackie Henson, Huckabee volunteer coordinator at HQ in Des Moines, and word was "Get here as soon as you can."
So at 6:30am, December 28, I will fly from Raleigh to Des Moines to participate on the front lines of the most wide open Presidential race in my lifetime.
Dale and I as a part of our ongoing political conversation intend to blog regularly of our experiences on the ground in Iowa as we join the fray for the final week through the January 3 caucus.
You will be able to find our posts here as we describe the preparation and the reports from the field. We have invited our regular cast of political outsiders to join us in posting their thoughts/opinions/beliefs and responses to our Iowa adventure.
For everyone else, Dale and I hope you will enjoy and perhaps even be a bit enlightened by our shared experiences in the Ground Game - Iowa.
So at 6:30am, December 28, I will fly from Raleigh to Des Moines to participate on the front lines of the most wide open Presidential race in my lifetime.
Dale and I as a part of our ongoing political conversation intend to blog regularly of our experiences on the ground in Iowa as we join the fray for the final week through the January 3 caucus.
You will be able to find our posts here as we describe the preparation and the reports from the field. We have invited our regular cast of political outsiders to join us in posting their thoughts/opinions/beliefs and responses to our Iowa adventure.
For everyone else, Dale and I hope you will enjoy and perhaps even be a bit enlightened by our shared experiences in the Ground Game - Iowa.
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