Now What?

Super Tuesday was a tie. It seems Obama has the Big Mo. Hillary is loaning her campaign serious dollars. And yet it is deja vu all over again. New Hampshire primary taught everyone a lesson (or at least made everyone gun shy): don't count out the Clinton's.

Politico's Jim VandeHei writes near brilliantly "Five Reasons Hillary Should Be Worried." In that spirit, I offer my Reasons Both Hillary & Barack Should Be Worried.

Hillary should be worried...

1 - The calendar doesn't favor her (see number five of the above article). This weekend's states consist of two caucuses (Obama has won 7 of 8 states with that format due to his organization) and Louisiana with a strong African-American population. The following Tuesday in the Chesapeake Primary, Obama is running strong. Barack should take a delegate lead into Texas and Ohio with the momentum stronger than ever.

2 - The money doesn't favor her. Loaning yourself $5 million (tough for a working lady of humble means) at a minimum casts a bit of concern on your campaign. Especially when Obama is likely to set another fund raising record for consecutive months. Money isn't everything (tip of the hat to McCain and Huckabee) but it sure helps.

3 - The ground game doesn't favor her. There is something about being in the room with Barack. He is electrifying and in states where he has been able to spend a lot of face time, he most often wins handily. The calendar, now that the national primary is over, allows for more time to be spent in each individual state giving speeches and packing out public halls. There are not enough tears to be shed to match his enthusiastic support going state by state.

4 - Bill has been too quiet. The old adage "you can't keep a good man down" also finds truth in its polar opposite. The Clinton campaign will not be able to keep Bill down for the duration. Too many reporters with too many microphones and cameras will be hoping to get the scoop of a lifetime. Bill Clinton will make news again and that can't be a good thing for his candidate wife.

5 - She is losing the endorsement battle. All the big ones are falling out for Barack - Teddy and Caroline, the female governors of Arizona and now Washington, even a host of Hollywood types. Endorsements don't win elections, but in this Democratic race, the super delegates might just deliver a victory. The momentum sweeping to his side including the big names and party supporters alike make it more likely (and safer) that the super delegates will move his way.

Peggy Noonan, a very respected conservative voice, writes a must read begging the question, "Will Hillary be able to lose without destroying the party?" She writes...

"I ruminate in this way because something is happening. Mrs. Clinton is losing this thing. It's not one big primary, it's a rolling loss, a daily one, an inch-by-inch deflation. The trends and indices are not in her favor. She is having trouble raising big money, she's funding her campaign with her own wealth, her moral standing within her own party and among her own followers has been dragged down, and the legacy of Clintonism tarnished by what Bill Clinton did in South Carolina. Unfavorable primaries lie ahead. She doesn't have the excitement, the great whoosh of feeling that accompanies a winning campaign. The guy from Chicago who was unknown a year ago continues to gain purchase, to move forward. For a soft little innocent, he's played a tough and knowing inside/outside game."

It pleases me that even Conservatives are noticing that there is something appealing about Obama and that he has a great shot to end the Clinton/Bush Dynastic Rule of America.

But...I believe there are also three good reasons for Obama to be worried.

1 - This could still become an ethnic election. If Obama is the "black" candidate, he must then overcome a real (while not mentioned) racial divide with Latinos as Hispanics have now eclipsed African-Americans as the largest minority in the United States (although we should soon admit the Anglos are the largest minority as the day is fast approaching when Anglos no longer out number all other minorities combined) not to mention the racism that still exists in portions of the deep South. The good news is there were signs on Super Tuesday that younger Latinos were breaking strong for Barack indicating that this may truly be a generational election - that's one he can win especially against a 73 year old McCain.

2 - He could lose the expectations game. New Hampshire is Obama's kryptonite. The press were so ready to crown a new prince and dance on the political grave of the Clinton dynasty. The polls jumped declaring a double digit win by the Obamacans only to be shocked by night's end. In California, the last poll before the voting began was a shocking 13 point lead by Obama that resulted in a six point loss. Democrats, Independents, the Press, the party leaders, and even a few Republicans so want to see the Fall of Hillary and the Rise of Barack that any opportunity to inflate reality is embraced to his fault. After Super Tuesday he was asked about being an "underdog." His response declared he was still an underdog, just not as big an underdog as the day before. Hillary (who likes to steal his best lines, i.e. Change) has now declared herself the underdog. In the year of Appalachian State, the bigger underdog may be the biggest favorite.

3 - The Clinton's will say or do anything to win. My greatest fear is that Obama takes the delegate lead as they move towards Denver and somewhere, in the back, smoky room, the Clinton's call in every favor, make something up on Obama, sell every Ambassadorship in the world to convince the Super Delegates to reverse the decision of the people and leave Barack on the outside looking in while the Democratic party is left in shambles. I have no love for the Democratic party, but the only way to defeat hope is to steal it away and leave the hopeful hopeless. There is no price that seems too high for Hillary.

I hope Peggy Noonan's question does not haunt our country for years.