The American conservative movement still has a heartbeat as we head to Florida. A new Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney leading John McCain 25% to 20% with Rudy Giuliani right behind at 19%. Mike Huckabee has faded to 13% after leading Florida polls just last week. In reality, it's too close to call, but Romney's wins in Michigan and Nevada were big because these allowed John McCain to deal a serious blow to the Huckabee effort without giving Mr. McCain the massive head of steam into Florida that he may have had with a Michigan win.
Also, Florida has a closed primary. Mr. McCain's strengths to-date have been in those states that allow Democrats and Independents to vote in the Republican primary. However, McCain could be aided with the conservative vote being split among Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and Fred Thompson. With all five candidates competing seriously, one may only need 28-30% of the vote to march to victory next week.
Fred Thompson continues to poll in the double digits, and it would seem he is ready to be done with his Presidential bid, but wants to fully understand who will be the beneficiary of his exit. He recognizes the jeopardy of Southern social conservatives potentially flocking to Mike Huckabee, and I think GOP leaders will convince him to stay in the race one more week to avoid that outcome.
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