Final Thought on Iowa

Since Jonathan's prognostications have thus far left us largely wanting, I'll go ahead and make a bold one -- Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States.

I am staking my Obama prediction strictly on my belief that his youth and likability will bring new people into the process. I know, I know, Hillary will not go away easily. She will do her best to bring to light Obama's early career in the Chicago Democratic machine, perhaps the nation's most corrupt political scene. She will expose his ties to Tony Rezko. This will help Republicans, but I do not believe anything will stick to Obama. He is a likable guy, and I do not think the media be willing accomplices in an endeavor to destroy him.

In 16 Year Itch Michael Barone explains a phenomena in American presidential politics that happens every 16 years when the median aged voter has a completely different life experience leading to a different evaluation of candidates. "New voters, taking the good things of the present for granted and ignorant of the bad things of the past, are willing to take unusual risks. That seems to be happening this year."

If our education system has done its job, all of those young caucus goers that I saw in Iowa Thursday night know that our country is more prosperous because of supply side economic policies and free trade. They probably learned how the high marginal and corporate tax rates of the 70's led to simultaneous double-digit inflation and double-digit unemployment, as they would certainly have been too young to ever experience true economic hardship in their lifetime (despite Huckabee and the Democrats telling them this is The Great Depression all over again).

Of course, there will be a lot happen in the next few days, let alone before November.