Four Words Later

Less than 24 hours ago, one of the biggest political upsets in modern history took place in sleepy New Hampshire. Clinton, down by as many as 13 points in the polls the day before beat Obama in the Granite state by 3 points. When the dust settled, pundits and pollsters alike were sifting through rubble asking the same question - "How did it happen?"

The data made it pretty clear. Women 40 and over supported Barack 35% to 30% in Iowa and those trends were holding until the final day when Hillary carried women 47% to 25%. That made the difference. But what was it that turned them in the final hours? Hillary's tears were a strong factor. In theory, it proved, like the Tin Man, she really did have a heart. Or maybe the gals came to the defense of Hillary because she was being ganged up on by the other male candidates and male members of the media. Some even suggested it was Chris Matthews' all-but-endorsement of Obama followed by a challenging question and subsequent hug at one of Hillary's events.

But I suggest it all changed Saturday evening at the Democratic debate. After being asked by Charlie Gibson why it was the her likability numbers were not as good as Obama's, Clinton smirked a bit, shrugged, and in a tepid voice with a crooked smile said, "I don't know, but it hurts my feelings." It was in the next moment that New Hampshire was lost. As the female audience, both present and watching at home, watched Hillary make a scene, Obama spoke. "You're likable enough, Hillary," he said with a gruff voice that in retrospect must have sounded like a pejorative slam of the former First Lady. Those four words, missed by most males, took root in the psyche of liberal, independent (and mostly single) women and they rose to fight back for every time that had heard a guy speak that way to another women.

Now we move forward and hopefully Barack learned his lesson. Nevada and South Carolina are next (following a short stop in Michigan).