Jonathan, your on-the-ground blogging was superlative. It appears Rich Lowry attended some of the same Iowa events this weekend, and his analysis of the front-runners is definitely worth a read, particularly with the backdrop of your observations. He could have written your Edwards and Obama summaries and vice versa. Did you compare notes in the Des Moines airport?
Lowry makes the case that all candidates have tailored their message to one of change:
Quoted from the article: For Huckabee, change is voting for the underdog. For Romney, change is competence. For Edwards, change is confrontation. For Obama, change is hope. For Fred, change is electing the guy who you can trust not to change.
I like his approach of reducing each candidate's message to a one word theme, and believe these themes are instructive to identifying the values of each front-runner's core supporters.
As Iowans take a closer look at Mr. Huckabee, Lowry's analysis rings true for many, "This, the first half of Huckabee’s presentation, is extremely impressive. It makes you wish that his prodigious talent could be marshaled for the forces of good. If only his gut instincts for bread-and-butter middle-class concerns were matched with better policy instincts and a more serious approach to policy."
On another note, in today's New York Times David Brooks acknowledges that Governor Romney is a decent man with some good fiscal and economic policies, but believes his across-the-board allegiance to conservative principles will ensure Democratic victory in November.
Brooks is one of my favorites, but I think he misreads that most Americans are much more likely to be fed up with Republicans, than with conservative principles. I also think he misses that many GOP primary voters see that there have been only four well-run campaigns in the 2008 cycle, and three of those have been run by Democratic candidates. Can Republicans trust Mr. McCain or Mr. Huckabee to go toe-to-toe with such a formidable opponent in what promises to be the longest ever (~9 mos.) general election?
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