Ah, Yes...Iowa (and beyond)

I have been remiss the last couple of days to share/spread my political beliefs and expectations via my newly adopted medium. Apologies.

Iowa ended with certain surprises. Obama won, but by a much larger margin than I expected. Edwards held on for second, sticking a dagger into Hillary. I was right as to the increased turnout, but neither I, nor any of the pundits, expected the huge numbers of new caucus goers. Richardson is playing for VP, Dodd and Biden are out, and the Clinton camp is on tilt.

On the GOP side, my alternative scenario became reality as Huck won and won big. Romney, for all Dale's effort, was disappointing at best. And his choice to give his runner-up speech at the same time Huck was enjoying his nine point victory was bad sportsmanship. Romney obviously does not like to lose.

Many of you who have asked have heard my projections going forward. For the Dems, I think Obama wins New Hampshire by double digits. Hillary will be lucky to outlast Edwards this time either. But the clear front-runner is Obama and having been in the man's presence, I fully understand why. His victory speech was outstanding marking his third great speech in what will no doubt be a vast collection (joining the 2004 Democratic National Convention and the September Jefferson-Jackson Dinner). I expect the big unions here in Vegas will want to back a winner and Obama should take Nevada (probably a bit closer than the previous states) and then another double digit win in South Carolina now that an African-American is to be a legitimate candidate and rally African-Americans from the Clinton bosom. Super Tuesday should be the first coronation to be followed by another one in November. Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States and I am glad to have be a fan and supporter since his Oprah appearance October 2006.

For the Republicans, McCain should edge out Romney in New Hampshire ending the school boy's chances. Michigan should also fall for McCain. Huckabee will be more prominent in South Carolina as Mitt fades and McCain's rough history in that state should keep him at bay. Then it comes down to Florida. Rudy has set up camp in the sunshine state for the last year. It will be do or die time. The top two coming out of Florida should do battle on Super Tuesday for the title. It is likely that McCain can carry momentum into February but as likely that Rudy's "wait it out" strategy might actually work. But who can bet against the "hopeful" underdog so give me Huck vs. Rudy for the title. I believe one thing for certain: Huckabee has wrapped up at least the VP nomination from either McCain or Rudy (Des Moines' favorite son, Tom Clegg, got a question to Carl Cameron of Fox News for me at one of the Iowa after parties as the possiblity that McCain wold choose Huck for VP. Absolutely affirmative was his response). He has run to their defense time and again. He is also the only representative of the third leg of the GOP in social conservatives while John and Rudy battle to secure the defense conservatives and Rudy carries the fiscal conservative mantel.

So I'll stick with Rudy and Huck versus Obama and whoever he anoints VP (perhaps Edwards, maybe Richardson, definitely not Hillary and probably a conservative Democrat hoping to start demonstrating his unity strategy).

For more alternative scenarios, I offer Dick Morris who is obviously more skilled at political handicapping than I am.

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