Up Next: New Hampshire

In the last four contested New Hampshire GOP primaries (1980, 88, 96, 00), New Hampshire has picked a different winner than Iowa. In two cases the Iowa winner went on to the nomination, in two cases the NH winner prevailed. However, since Iowa took its current place in the process, a candidate has had to score a win in one of the two states to move on, though no candidate has won both in a contested year.

This does not bode well for Mike Huckabee's chances in New Hampshire, but as Bob Dole and George W. Bush proved, an Iowa win can take you to the nomination without the support of The Granite State.

This also does not bode well for Tuesday's second-place finisher, likely to be Governor Mitt Romney or Senator John McCain. Senator McCain would be particularly damaged because his campaign is already running on borrowed money. If McCain cannot win in New Hampshire, it is unclear where he could soon get on the board. He destroyed George W. Bush in the 2000 primary, and has again raked in all of the key local newspaper endorsements. Without money, Sen. McCain is telling the media that he would like to see a positive campaign, while the same pro-McCain newspapers do his attacking on Governor Romney.

While Mitt Romney will have the resources to continue in any outcome, another loss by a wide margin would be very bad news. The Michigan primary is one week later, and it would seem that one would be a slam dunk for Governor Romney, but another distant second would put his campaign in jeopardy.

I am going to predict that Romney narrowly edges McCain in a very tight race. I think New Hampshire voters are more issue-oriented, and only Romney and Thompson have spoken to conservatives on the issues. McCain will capture the independents looking for the person, not the platform, but the basis for my prediction is that Obama's presence on the other side will pull away up to half of those swing voters who propelled McCain to his huge win in 2000. The first post-Iowa poll will be posted on The Page at 6p today.

Also, Romney has collected 75% of the Wyoming delegates with 66% of precincts reporting. We needed some good news. Watch the Republicans at 7p tonight on ABC.