As the most junior of junior advisers, Precinct Captain -- Davenport City 41, it is my counsel to play nice with John McCain from here through Super Tuesday. The well organized Romney machine has highlighted his record and forced him into important flip-flops on the Alito nomination and the Bush tax cuts.
As Ron Paul pointed out in last night's debate, there isn't a sliver of difference between McCain and Romney on the war against Islamic jihadists and excessive government spending, and these are two of the most important issues to unite many Americans in November. These two alone make Sen. McCain more palatable than a potential Democrat or third party candidate.
I would like to see Ground Game's bloggers provide post-mortems on the stalled candidacies. I think Romney's would begin with being completely unknown a year ago with no natural base -- unless you count Mormons, venture capitalists, or MA Republicans who might combine to make up 0.5% of GOP primary voters.
In 1976, the GOP clashed between its standard bearer, Jerry Ford, and its new idea guy, Ronald Reagan. In the end, Reagan supported Ford, but didn't sway from his message and this gave birth to a bold new America just four years later.
NH, SC, and FL, have already spoken and believe it is John McCain's turn. Many politico types believe this is a great move for the party, as McCain enjoys national name recognition and appeals to a wide-swath of independents and moderates.
In the meantime, the GOP needs to find its new idea guy. Mitt Romney will have at least four years to prove that he is that person, but I hope there are others who embark on this journey.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Who Will Be My VP?
McCain
It all depends on who he is running against. If it is Obama, he chooses Mike Huckabee. He will need to sure up the conservative base and his prospects of swaying independents is greatly hampered. Huck provides a "man amongst the people" Christian Conservative following as well as a nicely fitting populous economic message that would hopefully (and unsuccessfully) counter that of Obama's. If it is Hillary, McCain chooses Crist. He does not need to worry about uniting the base. Clinton does that for him. He will play better with Independents and will need to sure up Florida by taking the extremely popular Governor (70% approval rating)
Obama
Edwards must have struck some deal to get out of the race at this point as it cost him very little to go on through Super Tuesday and be in a better bargaining position. But the VP slot is unlikely (watch him for Attorney General). More likely is Jim Webb of Virginia (thanks Danny) who is almost like having McCain run on his ticket. It helps sure up any question of foreign policy and adds the Governor of a state that is in play in 2008.
Clinton
So who wants to run with the big, bad wolf? Wesley Clark? Evan Bayh? Bill Richardson? The Wicked Witch of the West? It really doesn't matter. Bill Clinton will be the defacto President/Vice President. The VP slot is all about meeting the whatever collegiate national championship teams visiting the White House in the next four years.
It all depends on who he is running against. If it is Obama, he chooses Mike Huckabee. He will need to sure up the conservative base and his prospects of swaying independents is greatly hampered. Huck provides a "man amongst the people" Christian Conservative following as well as a nicely fitting populous economic message that would hopefully (and unsuccessfully) counter that of Obama's. If it is Hillary, McCain chooses Crist. He does not need to worry about uniting the base. Clinton does that for him. He will play better with Independents and will need to sure up Florida by taking the extremely popular Governor (70% approval rating)
Obama
Edwards must have struck some deal to get out of the race at this point as it cost him very little to go on through Super Tuesday and be in a better bargaining position. But the VP slot is unlikely (watch him for Attorney General). More likely is Jim Webb of Virginia (thanks Danny) who is almost like having McCain run on his ticket. It helps sure up any question of foreign policy and adds the Governor of a state that is in play in 2008.
Clinton
So who wants to run with the big, bad wolf? Wesley Clark? Evan Bayh? Bill Richardson? The Wicked Witch of the West? It really doesn't matter. Bill Clinton will be the defacto President/Vice President. The VP slot is all about meeting the whatever collegiate national championship teams visiting the White House in the next four years.
White Men Will Make the Difference
The drama that is the Democratic race for the nomination takes another important turn today. At 1pm EST in New Orleans, John Edwards will bow out of the race. It sets up the irony that white men, the only group that Edwards has marked consistent success, must now choose to support a women or an African-American man. In South Carolina, the key group was virtually split between Obama and Clinton just below 30% while Edwards carried this segment with just over 40% of the vote.
(Aside)
Speaking of white guys, the three left in the Republican race were forecast by contributors to Ground Game. Jonathan's long-shot (and even longer-shot now), Dale's well financed early front runner (who has been gagging for a while) and Justin's 2008 version of Lazarus will be standing together at the Reagan Library with their game faces on later this evening. It seems all the Republican candidates (except Romney of course) have chosen their favorite Republican candidate as Rudy will endorse today and Huck, by staying in the race and drawing Christian conservative votes from Romney, has endorsed in his own way. The only real question left is will Huck or Florida's Governor Charlie Crist be McCain's running mate.
(And we're back)
The long awaited one-on-one will light up Hollywood Thursday night. All the momentum, the passing of the (Kennedy) Torch, and the love affair with the media has Obama riding high while Clinton has been reduced to giving her best Lou Gehrig "I'm the luckiest (lady) on the face of the earth" rendition at a rain shortened seven inning intra-squad preseason game at a high school field in Florida. (By the way, Obama actually split evenly the Florida vote of those who actually went to the polls yesterday. Much of Clinton's support came prior to the South Carolina whipping and the Kenndy endorsement via early voting) Bill has been put back in his box (for at least one day) and she enters Thursday night, dare I say, a bit desperate. You think there were fireworks last week, just wait to see them go at it this week.
(Aside)
Speaking of white guys, the three left in the Republican race were forecast by contributors to Ground Game. Jonathan's long-shot (and even longer-shot now), Dale's well financed early front runner (who has been gagging for a while) and Justin's 2008 version of Lazarus will be standing together at the Reagan Library with their game faces on later this evening. It seems all the Republican candidates (except Romney of course) have chosen their favorite Republican candidate as Rudy will endorse today and Huck, by staying in the race and drawing Christian conservative votes from Romney, has endorsed in his own way. The only real question left is will Huck or Florida's Governor Charlie Crist be McCain's running mate.
(And we're back)
The long awaited one-on-one will light up Hollywood Thursday night. All the momentum, the passing of the (Kennedy) Torch, and the love affair with the media has Obama riding high while Clinton has been reduced to giving her best Lou Gehrig "I'm the luckiest (lady) on the face of the earth" rendition at a rain shortened seven inning intra-squad preseason game at a high school field in Florida. (By the way, Obama actually split evenly the Florida vote of those who actually went to the polls yesterday. Much of Clinton's support came prior to the South Carolina whipping and the Kenndy endorsement via early voting) Bill has been put back in his box (for at least one day) and she enters Thursday night, dare I say, a bit desperate. You think there were fireworks last week, just wait to see them go at it this week.
McCain Wins!
(thoughts from J Butters)
McCain was right on the biggest issue of our time, Iraq (more troops for victory). He was right for years, supported Bush when he came on board when NO ONE defended Bush, and has ridden the surge to his current popularity (rightly so)
McCain did vote against Bush's tax cuts, but he has also been a tireless campaigner against wasteful govt spending. I would gladly forgo tax cuts if Washington would eliminate earmarks and out of control spending. (I will never support a tax increase, however)
In the defining issue of his generation, Vietnam, McCain served and served honorably and with distinction. This sets him apart from just about everyone in the field.
He is getting endorsed by Rudy at the Reagan library for crying out loud, and Nancy loves him. That has to count for something.
Ironically, his victory in Florida exposes the problems with his biggest mistake, McCain Feingold. Romney outspent him 10 to 1 in TV ads and still lost. Money is not the problem in campaigns.
And let's not forget, McCain does better against Clinton or Obama in polling than Romney or anyone else. Dale, don't look at it as a choice between McCain or Romney, look at it as a choice between McCain and Clinton and that should focus the mind.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
St. John of Arizona
Perhaps the only candidate more miffed than Hillary about the Kennedy family's announced support for Obama is John McCain. After collecting endorsements from Sen. Lieberman, the NY Times, and the Boston Globe, it appeared possible for Senator McCain to pull a clean sweep through the Northeast liberal establishment.
Senator Kennnedy snubs the Senator who stood next to him on that failed legislation to move every illegal alien to the front of the citizenship line.
In comparing the dirty tricks played by the Clinton and McCain camps, today George Will states, "This was a garden-variety dishonesty, the manufacture of which does not cause a Clinton in midseason form to break a sweat. And it was no worse than -- actually, not as gross as -- St. John of Arizona's crooked-talk claim in Florida..."
Senator Kennnedy snubs the Senator who stood next to him on that failed legislation to move every illegal alien to the front of the citizenship line.
In comparing the dirty tricks played by the Clinton and McCain camps, today George Will states, "This was a garden-variety dishonesty, the manufacture of which does not cause a Clinton in midseason form to break a sweat. And it was no worse than -- actually, not as gross as -- St. John of Arizona's crooked-talk claim in Florida..."
Saturday, January 26, 2008
The Rezko Factor
Photo Links Chicago Businessman to Two Slimy Politicians
Loyal readers of Groundgame saw a Jan 5 prediction that the Clintons would highlight Obama's upbringing in the corrupt Chicago Democratic machine and his cozy relationship with Tony Rezko, who awaits trial for federal corruption charges. If the Obama Team released this photo, it was a big mistake, because this is the first time many Americans have heard of Tony Rezko.
Friday, January 25, 2008
John Edwards: Losing Ugly
"It profits a man nothing to sell his soul for the whole world. But for 4 percent of the Nevada caucuses?"
The spectacle that is the Paradoxical Candidate is highlighted in today's John Edwards: Losing Ugly. It is getting more clear that John Edwards presses forward, not for the union member whose children must drink spoiled milk from a rusty pail because of the Bush tax cuts -- but for a potential kingmaker role at the convention should Senators Obama and Clinton remain in a close race. The Edwards insincerity has even drawn the ire of true Trotsky disciples such as Senator Russ Feingold.
"The one (presidential candidate) that is the most problematic is Edwards," Sen. Russ Feingold told The Post-Crescent in Appleton, Wis., "who voted for the Patriot Act, campaigns against it. Voted for No Child Left Behind, campaigns against it. Voted for the China trade deal, campaigns against it. Voted for the Iraq War. ... He uses my voting record exactly as his platform, even though he had the opposite voting record."
The spectacle that is the Paradoxical Candidate is highlighted in today's John Edwards: Losing Ugly. It is getting more clear that John Edwards presses forward, not for the union member whose children must drink spoiled milk from a rusty pail because of the Bush tax cuts -- but for a potential kingmaker role at the convention should Senators Obama and Clinton remain in a close race. The Edwards insincerity has even drawn the ire of true Trotsky disciples such as Senator Russ Feingold.
"The one (presidential candidate) that is the most problematic is Edwards," Sen. Russ Feingold told The Post-Crescent in Appleton, Wis., "who voted for the Patriot Act, campaigns against it. Voted for No Child Left Behind, campaigns against it. Voted for the China trade deal, campaigns against it. Voted for the Iraq War. ... He uses my voting record exactly as his platform, even though he had the opposite voting record."
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Thank you, Fred!
Fred Thompson, as you exit the race today, let me say you are a great American. Thank you for putting yourself and your family through the grinder that is the presidential campaign. You stood for a sensible agenda that would have been good for our country, but fell behind early in the important money and organization side of this process. You will be missed.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Mid-Debate
Wow!! Obama is bringing his A game. He is hitching Bill and Hillary ("Sometimes I am not sure who I am running against.") He is calling out all the misleading statements that have been made. He is going at Hillary straight up. This has been his best performance.
Still on Life Support...
The American conservative movement still has a heartbeat as we head to Florida. A new Rasmussen poll shows Mitt Romney leading John McCain 25% to 20% with Rudy Giuliani right behind at 19%. Mike Huckabee has faded to 13% after leading Florida polls just last week. In reality, it's too close to call, but Romney's wins in Michigan and Nevada were big because these allowed John McCain to deal a serious blow to the Huckabee effort without giving Mr. McCain the massive head of steam into Florida that he may have had with a Michigan win.
Also, Florida has a closed primary. Mr. McCain's strengths to-date have been in those states that allow Democrats and Independents to vote in the Republican primary. However, McCain could be aided with the conservative vote being split among Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and Fred Thompson. With all five candidates competing seriously, one may only need 28-30% of the vote to march to victory next week.
Fred Thompson continues to poll in the double digits, and it would seem he is ready to be done with his Presidential bid, but wants to fully understand who will be the beneficiary of his exit. He recognizes the jeopardy of Southern social conservatives potentially flocking to Mike Huckabee, and I think GOP leaders will convince him to stay in the race one more week to avoid that outcome.
Also, Florida has a closed primary. Mr. McCain's strengths to-date have been in those states that allow Democrats and Independents to vote in the Republican primary. However, McCain could be aided with the conservative vote being split among Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and Fred Thompson. With all five candidates competing seriously, one may only need 28-30% of the vote to march to victory next week.
Fred Thompson continues to poll in the double digits, and it would seem he is ready to be done with his Presidential bid, but wants to fully understand who will be the beneficiary of his exit. He recognizes the jeopardy of Southern social conservatives potentially flocking to Mike Huckabee, and I think GOP leaders will convince him to stay in the race one more week to avoid that outcome.
So now what?
On This Week with George Stephanopoulos, super liberal Katrina vanden Heuvel likened Bill Clinton's recent tactics in New Hampshire and Nevada to those of a little league dad who just can't stay above the fray. Panelists on multiple networks agreed that it was the Clintons who were attempting to lower the discussion. On Fox News, Juan Williams expressed a clear disappointment that the Clintons would paint Barack Obama as the black candidate, even though Obama's campaign has been anything but a "black campaign".
Until proven otherwise, it is still my sense the Clintons are the most skilled politicians on the planet. They must have made a calculation that they can afford to push around some core Democratic constituencies in January and February with no fear of reprisal in November. They likely see Hispanic voters as America's largest and fastest growing demographic, particularly in several states that could swing red or blue in November. The tensions between the country's largest and second largest minorities have been brought into plain view for rural and suburban America. The Clintons could and should cool it. But as Mara Liasson likes to point out, the Clintons have a tendency to use two sets of brass knuckles when one would do just fine.
Until proven otherwise, it is still my sense the Clintons are the most skilled politicians on the planet. They must have made a calculation that they can afford to push around some core Democratic constituencies in January and February with no fear of reprisal in November. They likely see Hispanic voters as America's largest and fastest growing demographic, particularly in several states that could swing red or blue in November. The tensions between the country's largest and second largest minorities have been brought into plain view for rural and suburban America. The Clintons could and should cool it. But as Mara Liasson likes to point out, the Clintons have a tendency to use two sets of brass knuckles when one would do just fine.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Caucus Confusion
It now seems that Obama actually won 13 delegates to Clinton's 12. Nevada, in the end, looks like a split decision.
Could It Be Obama's Last Stand?
65% of Nevada voters said that last week's Democratic debate played an important role in their choosing of a candidate. The gentile "family" debate had little fireworks as Hillary resumed her "General Election" tone, Edwards was nicer and Obama played it safe. The Clinton machine controlled the expectations game as well as the ground game winning 6 of the 7 casino caucuses that were in dispute in the lawsuit earlier in the week. Ultimately, the only Clinton misstep that has hurt the campaign was the Philadelphia debate back in September as she has showed incredible resilience after the Iowa loss, the racial statements and clear efforts at voter suppression after losing the Culinary Union's endorsement. Women, Latinos, and Seniors all came out and carried the day in Nevada.
Monday night, things must change. That evening in South Carolina, the Democrats will once again debate (on the Clinton News Network) and the deck will once again be stacked against Barack. His performance is crucial. He must score major points, drawing out Clinton's insincerity and her doublespeak. He must challenge her and catch her again. He must question her style and tone of politics. Because if he does not, the Clinton's will attack him at his core South Carolina support, African Americans. Bill Clinton has pledged to go door-to-door and church-to-church this next week in South Carolina and all bets are off as to what he might say or do to win.
Howard Fineman, on MSNBC's election coverage, says that this race is now "a civil war that will tear the Democratic Party apart." Obama must deliver another strong strike Monday night or this war may be over more quickly than any might expect.
Monday night, things must change. That evening in South Carolina, the Democrats will once again debate (on the Clinton News Network) and the deck will once again be stacked against Barack. His performance is crucial. He must score major points, drawing out Clinton's insincerity and her doublespeak. He must challenge her and catch her again. He must question her style and tone of politics. Because if he does not, the Clinton's will attack him at his core South Carolina support, African Americans. Bill Clinton has pledged to go door-to-door and church-to-church this next week in South Carolina and all bets are off as to what he might say or do to win.
Howard Fineman, on MSNBC's election coverage, says that this race is now "a civil war that will tear the Democratic Party apart." Obama must deliver another strong strike Monday night or this war may be over more quickly than any might expect.
The Nevada Caucus - In the Room
It was chaos. All the reasons that Iowa should go first and keep the caucus as its voting mode (it is their birthright, they take it seriously, it's democracy in action and the Clinton's hate it) are exactly the reason Nevada should not be caucusing. Mass confusion reigned. We ran out of ballots and no one really knew if we needed them or not. We started a half hour late and I could have voted without ever registering as a Democrat for the day so I expect the possibility of voter fraud is more viable than Edwards on this 19th day of January.
I appreciate that my new home state has the opportunity to weigh in so early in the primary calendar. We should just adopt the primary system.
To the results...in precinct 6493, Hillary carried 44-35 over Obama however both camps receive three delegates. It will be a close race. We'll see if the unions carry it for Obama. Edwards was not viable and I expect will do very poorly today. (Internet rumors are beginning to emerge that say Edwards could endorse Obama which would be a significant development in this race.)
As a side note, Romney swept the GOP caucus without any trouble and at the end of the day will hold the delegate lead.
Now I want to find the fastest way to change my party affiliation back to a proud independent. No offense, but a Democrat for a day is about all I can handle.
I appreciate that my new home state has the opportunity to weigh in so early in the primary calendar. We should just adopt the primary system.
To the results...in precinct 6493, Hillary carried 44-35 over Obama however both camps receive three delegates. It will be a close race. We'll see if the unions carry it for Obama. Edwards was not viable and I expect will do very poorly today. (Internet rumors are beginning to emerge that say Edwards could endorse Obama which would be a significant development in this race.)
As a side note, Romney swept the GOP caucus without any trouble and at the end of the day will hold the delegate lead.
Now I want to find the fastest way to change my party affiliation back to a proud independent. No offense, but a Democrat for a day is about all I can handle.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
GOP Delegate Count After Michigan
Romney - 42
Huckabee - 21
McCain - 19
Thompson - 6
Paul - 2
Giuliani - 1
With a commanding lead in delegates and financial resources, Mitt Romney could easily be called the front runner in this race -- except we know better. South Carolina could well be the first state where he does not place first or second, and Florida could be the second.
It appears that financial contraints among the field could force several candidates to adopt the Giuliani strategy of focusing on those states with the biggest delegate prizes. Rudy has gotten the help he has needed with no single candidate seeming inevitable before Florida, arguably Romney's slowing of Senator McCain last night was the biggest boost yet. The question is can Mayor Giuliani deliver the big states as promised now that his pre-FL chaos has played out?
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
The Politics of Pigmentation
With the future of the conservative movement at stake, admittedly I've paid scant attention to the happenings in the Trotskyism primary, but came across a worthwhile read on today's editorial page entitled The Politics of Pigmentation. America's smartest editorial board did inject some substance into the recent pointless exchange between Senators Clinton and Obama. The point being America should be a beacon to the world in debating issues and ideas, not playing to the lowest common denominator of identity politics.
"Let's leave aside how this exchange undermines each candidates' claims that he or she would unite the country rather than divide it like the "polarizing" President Bush."
"Were she a true uniter, however, Mrs. Clinton might have added that the Civil Rights Act took bipartisanship as well, thanks to fierce opposition from Southern Democrats. Republicans of that era are often portrayed as opponents of civil rights. In fact, a higher percentage of Republicans than Democrats voted for the 1964 bill. And when it finally passed, GOP Senator Everett Dirksen, the minority leader who worked closely with the bill's sponsor, Democrat Hubert Humphrey, was honored for his efforts with a NAACP civil rights award."
"Democrats never miss an opportunity to play the race card against Republicans and even black conservatives like Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas who dare to dissent from liberal orthodoxy. So it's tempting to enjoy the political entertainment value of a race-based dust up between Senators Clinton and Obama."
"But there's also a cautionary tale here in how identity politics can come back to bite. The left's color-by-numbers approach to attracting votes has essentially painted the Democrats into a corner, making it very difficult for them to prevail in national elections without winning nearly every black vote. The result is the very antithesis of what King fought for -- an over-reliance on blunt racial appeals instead of issues and ideas."
"Let's leave aside how this exchange undermines each candidates' claims that he or she would unite the country rather than divide it like the "polarizing" President Bush."
"Were she a true uniter, however, Mrs. Clinton might have added that the Civil Rights Act took bipartisanship as well, thanks to fierce opposition from Southern Democrats. Republicans of that era are often portrayed as opponents of civil rights. In fact, a higher percentage of Republicans than Democrats voted for the 1964 bill. And when it finally passed, GOP Senator Everett Dirksen, the minority leader who worked closely with the bill's sponsor, Democrat Hubert Humphrey, was honored for his efforts with a NAACP civil rights award."
"Democrats never miss an opportunity to play the race card against Republicans and even black conservatives like Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas who dare to dissent from liberal orthodoxy. So it's tempting to enjoy the political entertainment value of a race-based dust up between Senators Clinton and Obama."
"But there's also a cautionary tale here in how identity politics can come back to bite. The left's color-by-numbers approach to attracting votes has essentially painted the Democrats into a corner, making it very difficult for them to prevail in national elections without winning nearly every black vote. The result is the very antithesis of what King fought for -- an over-reliance on blunt racial appeals instead of issues and ideas."
Monday, January 14, 2008
This Week: Michigan
I've communicated with a Quad Cities teammate who is in Michigan this week. The mood on the ground is quite upbeat in the Romney camp. The sense is that McCain is coming into Michigan a bit like Obama came into New Hampshire -- riding a bit of a wave and poll bounce, but perhaps coasting too much on that fact alone. Governor Romney is working very hard, and speaking to an issue where he carries credibility and strikes a chord locally -- the economy.
The wild card is that Democrats don't really have anything to vote for on Tuesday since only Senator Clinton is on the ballot, and the DNC has said the delegates will not count. If some Michigan Democrats vote in the GOP primary in an attempt to join the process, it would seem Governor Huckabee and Senator McCain would be the most likely beneficiaries.
The wild card is that Democrats don't really have anything to vote for on Tuesday since only Senator Clinton is on the ballot, and the DNC has said the delegates will not count. If some Michigan Democrats vote in the GOP primary in an attempt to join the process, it would seem Governor Huckabee and Senator McCain would be the most likely beneficiaries.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Yes We Can!
Calling Obama's second place finish in New Hampshire one of the biggest upsets in modern history is a bit of an overstatement. If the main stream media, pundits and pontificators over hype a character and then are proven completely wrong is the candidate, who 5 days earlier didn't stand a chance to win in Iowa, now all of a sudden "upset" in New Hampshire. I would rather say that Barack is such a compelling story that even the Republican and Democratic media couldn't help but fall in love with him, leading them to over hype the candidate. The love affair, and compressed news cycles, temporarily blinded them from the truth that the Clinton Machine is alive and well, proving it will take more than a bucket of water to kill this wicked witch. Once the dust settled, and the questions of what went wrong had been asked, Barack continued on his improbable journey to 1500 Pennsylvania Ave. The money and endorsements continue to pour into his campaign. The endorsement from two influential Nevada Unions and two former Presidential contenders in the two days after New Hampshire is not a faltering campaign but rather one that is picking up steam heading into states with a little bit more diversity than the first two contests. Obama is Fired Up and Ready To Go!
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Four Words Later
Less than 24 hours ago, one of the biggest political upsets in modern history took place in sleepy New Hampshire. Clinton, down by as many as 13 points in the polls the day before beat Obama in the Granite state by 3 points. When the dust settled, pundits and pollsters alike were sifting through rubble asking the same question - "How did it happen?"
The data made it pretty clear. Women 40 and over supported Barack 35% to 30% in Iowa and those trends were holding until the final day when Hillary carried women 47% to 25%. That made the difference. But what was it that turned them in the final hours? Hillary's tears were a strong factor. In theory, it proved, like the Tin Man, she really did have a heart. Or maybe the gals came to the defense of Hillary because she was being ganged up on by the other male candidates and male members of the media. Some even suggested it was Chris Matthews' all-but-endorsement of Obama followed by a challenging question and subsequent hug at one of Hillary's events.
But I suggest it all changed Saturday evening at the Democratic debate. After being asked by Charlie Gibson why it was the her likability numbers were not as good as Obama's, Clinton smirked a bit, shrugged, and in a tepid voice with a crooked smile said, "I don't know, but it hurts my feelings." It was in the next moment that New Hampshire was lost. As the female audience, both present and watching at home, watched Hillary make a scene, Obama spoke. "You're likable enough, Hillary," he said with a gruff voice that in retrospect must have sounded like a pejorative slam of the former First Lady. Those four words, missed by most males, took root in the psyche of liberal, independent (and mostly single) women and they rose to fight back for every time that had heard a guy speak that way to another women.
Now we move forward and hopefully Barack learned his lesson. Nevada and South Carolina are next (following a short stop in Michigan).
The data made it pretty clear. Women 40 and over supported Barack 35% to 30% in Iowa and those trends were holding until the final day when Hillary carried women 47% to 25%. That made the difference. But what was it that turned them in the final hours? Hillary's tears were a strong factor. In theory, it proved, like the Tin Man, she really did have a heart. Or maybe the gals came to the defense of Hillary because she was being ganged up on by the other male candidates and male members of the media. Some even suggested it was Chris Matthews' all-but-endorsement of Obama followed by a challenging question and subsequent hug at one of Hillary's events.
But I suggest it all changed Saturday evening at the Democratic debate. After being asked by Charlie Gibson why it was the her likability numbers were not as good as Obama's, Clinton smirked a bit, shrugged, and in a tepid voice with a crooked smile said, "I don't know, but it hurts my feelings." It was in the next moment that New Hampshire was lost. As the female audience, both present and watching at home, watched Hillary make a scene, Obama spoke. "You're likable enough, Hillary," he said with a gruff voice that in retrospect must have sounded like a pejorative slam of the former First Lady. Those four words, missed by most males, took root in the psyche of liberal, independent (and mostly single) women and they rose to fight back for every time that had heard a guy speak that way to another women.
Now we move forward and hopefully Barack learned his lesson. Nevada and South Carolina are next (following a short stop in Michigan).
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Congrats to Senator McCain
John McCain did what he had to do tonight with a nice showing in New Hampshire. It appears he beat Mayor Giuliani soundly near his backyard, and the margin over Mitt Romney could be impressive given that Romney has spent a lot of time in the state, and was fairly well-known as the Governor of Massachusetts.
I truly enjoyed having Mr. McCain and Mr. Huckabee on our side of the contest until Saturday night's debate. While Huckabee got in his fair share of wise cracks on Gov. Romney during this weekend's debates, I thought John McCain was particularly short-tempered and angry. They both wisecracked their way through the debate instead of discussing issues.
I sent an e-mail on Sunday to Rush Limbaugh asking him to use the influence of the golden EIB microphone to remind the Republican base that Mr. McCain has not stood with us on tax cuts, immigration, campaign finance reform, or the executive's ability to nominate constructionist judges. I'm sure Rush was flooded with similar e-mails from the heartland.
Rush Limbaugh, Monday, January 7: "Now, I want to remind all my Republican friends that there are many states after Iowa and New Hampshire where the Republican populations are far more indicative of the conservative base, and to get caught up in what happened in Iowa, to get caught up in what's going to happen in New Hampshire as though they're the only two states that matter and that they're going to determine the fallout on both parties is a little bit over the top."
Monday, January 7, 2008
Utter Chaos
Despite the crusty shell that Hillary continues to project, word is seeping out that the campaign is in utter chaos. Drudge reports that internally top advisers are split as to how to proceed in the face of a double digit loss in New Hampshire. So what is at stake if she gets crushed in back to back states? For one, cash. Donors will begin drying up. People with money to invest want to back a winner and she looks like anything but at this point. Her reputation and the Clinton name are on the line. Should she want to seek the position as Senate Majority Leader down the road, too much negative appeal might prevent that from being a reality.
NH polls have Obama ahead by double digits and the national polls show a Clinton collapse now only ahead by 4 points.
It is possible that a campaign shake-up follows NH with Mark Penn being ousted, negative ads going to a new level, Bill getting benched, or even the BIGGEST surprise from New Hampshire might be a Clinton withdrawal from the race.
Peter Wehner writes the Clinton Dynasty obituary.
Ground Game will be paying close attention to the next few days.
NH polls have Obama ahead by double digits and the national polls show a Clinton collapse now only ahead by 4 points.
It is possible that a campaign shake-up follows NH with Mark Penn being ousted, negative ads going to a new level, Bill getting benched, or even the BIGGEST surprise from New Hampshire might be a Clinton withdrawal from the race.
Peter Wehner writes the Clinton Dynasty obituary.
Ground Game will be paying close attention to the next few days.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Who's Afraid of the Great White Witch
John Kass of the Chicago-Tribune writes of the coming New Hampshire primary and Billary's next move with great props to C. S. Lewis.
"But I think I'm going to stay home. It's cold there, with ice and snow, like C.S. Lewis' Narnia when things were bleak. And now that Hillary Clinton has come in third in Iowa on the Democratic side and Barack Obama has become the official anti-Hillary, there's the big White Witch issue."
Hopefully that whets your appetite to read on...
"But I think I'm going to stay home. It's cold there, with ice and snow, like C.S. Lewis' Narnia when things were bleak. And now that Hillary Clinton has come in third in Iowa on the Democratic side and Barack Obama has become the official anti-Hillary, there's the big White Witch issue."
Hopefully that whets your appetite to read on...
Obama's Spiritual Journey in His Own Hand
Time.com published Obama's biography of his faith and practice and how spiritual matters should mesh with the public square (thanks to Bruce Hopler for the article). It is perhaps one of the best analysis I have read from a non-professional pastor person. For those who embrace faith in God and Jesus as an important part of their lives, I believe they will find comfort in Barack's experience and humble understanding of faith and its importance in life. For those who profess a different faith or no faith, they can feel confident the Obama represents a principled and intelligent approach to faith that holds religious practice and governmental practice in a healthy tension.
Ah, Yes...Iowa (and beyond)
I have been remiss the last couple of days to share/spread my political beliefs and expectations via my newly adopted medium. Apologies.
Iowa ended with certain surprises. Obama won, but by a much larger margin than I expected. Edwards held on for second, sticking a dagger into Hillary. I was right as to the increased turnout, but neither I, nor any of the pundits, expected the huge numbers of new caucus goers. Richardson is playing for VP, Dodd and Biden are out, and the Clinton camp is on tilt.
On the GOP side, my alternative scenario became reality as Huck won and won big. Romney, for all Dale's effort, was disappointing at best. And his choice to give his runner-up speech at the same time Huck was enjoying his nine point victory was bad sportsmanship. Romney obviously does not like to lose.
Many of you who have asked have heard my projections going forward. For the Dems, I think Obama wins New Hampshire by double digits. Hillary will be lucky to outlast Edwards this time either. But the clear front-runner is Obama and having been in the man's presence, I fully understand why. His victory speech was outstanding marking his third great speech in what will no doubt be a vast collection (joining the 2004 Democratic National Convention and the September Jefferson-Jackson Dinner). I expect the big unions here in Vegas will want to back a winner and Obama should take Nevada (probably a bit closer than the previous states) and then another double digit win in South Carolina now that an African-American is to be a legitimate candidate and rally African-Americans from the Clinton bosom. Super Tuesday should be the first coronation to be followed by another one in November. Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States and I am glad to have be a fan and supporter since his Oprah appearance October 2006.
For the Republicans, McCain should edge out Romney in New Hampshire ending the school boy's chances. Michigan should also fall for McCain. Huckabee will be more prominent in South Carolina as Mitt fades and McCain's rough history in that state should keep him at bay. Then it comes down to Florida. Rudy has set up camp in the sunshine state for the last year. It will be do or die time. The top two coming out of Florida should do battle on Super Tuesday for the title. It is likely that McCain can carry momentum into February but as likely that Rudy's "wait it out" strategy might actually work. But who can bet against the "hopeful" underdog so give me Huck vs. Rudy for the title. I believe one thing for certain: Huckabee has wrapped up at least the VP nomination from either McCain or Rudy (Des Moines' favorite son, Tom Clegg, got a question to Carl Cameron of Fox News for me at one of the Iowa after parties as the possiblity that McCain wold choose Huck for VP. Absolutely affirmative was his response). He has run to their defense time and again. He is also the only representative of the third leg of the GOP in social conservatives while John and Rudy battle to secure the defense conservatives and Rudy carries the fiscal conservative mantel.
So I'll stick with Rudy and Huck versus Obama and whoever he anoints VP (perhaps Edwards, maybe Richardson, definitely not Hillary and probably a conservative Democrat hoping to start demonstrating his unity strategy).
For more alternative scenarios, I offer Dick Morris who is obviously more skilled at political handicapping than I am.
**A Ground Game note: Ground Game will continue to evolve over the primaries and into the general election. We will continue to scour the news and blogs for the most important stuff and mix it with our unique and varied view points. We will also try to make it to the front lines as much as we can to give you first hand accounts. So tell your friends we are their best source for politics in 2008.
Iowa ended with certain surprises. Obama won, but by a much larger margin than I expected. Edwards held on for second, sticking a dagger into Hillary. I was right as to the increased turnout, but neither I, nor any of the pundits, expected the huge numbers of new caucus goers. Richardson is playing for VP, Dodd and Biden are out, and the Clinton camp is on tilt.
On the GOP side, my alternative scenario became reality as Huck won and won big. Romney, for all Dale's effort, was disappointing at best. And his choice to give his runner-up speech at the same time Huck was enjoying his nine point victory was bad sportsmanship. Romney obviously does not like to lose.
Many of you who have asked have heard my projections going forward. For the Dems, I think Obama wins New Hampshire by double digits. Hillary will be lucky to outlast Edwards this time either. But the clear front-runner is Obama and having been in the man's presence, I fully understand why. His victory speech was outstanding marking his third great speech in what will no doubt be a vast collection (joining the 2004 Democratic National Convention and the September Jefferson-Jackson Dinner). I expect the big unions here in Vegas will want to back a winner and Obama should take Nevada (probably a bit closer than the previous states) and then another double digit win in South Carolina now that an African-American is to be a legitimate candidate and rally African-Americans from the Clinton bosom. Super Tuesday should be the first coronation to be followed by another one in November. Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States and I am glad to have be a fan and supporter since his Oprah appearance October 2006.
For the Republicans, McCain should edge out Romney in New Hampshire ending the school boy's chances. Michigan should also fall for McCain. Huckabee will be more prominent in South Carolina as Mitt fades and McCain's rough history in that state should keep him at bay. Then it comes down to Florida. Rudy has set up camp in the sunshine state for the last year. It will be do or die time. The top two coming out of Florida should do battle on Super Tuesday for the title. It is likely that McCain can carry momentum into February but as likely that Rudy's "wait it out" strategy might actually work. But who can bet against the "hopeful" underdog so give me Huck vs. Rudy for the title. I believe one thing for certain: Huckabee has wrapped up at least the VP nomination from either McCain or Rudy (Des Moines' favorite son, Tom Clegg, got a question to Carl Cameron of Fox News for me at one of the Iowa after parties as the possiblity that McCain wold choose Huck for VP. Absolutely affirmative was his response). He has run to their defense time and again. He is also the only representative of the third leg of the GOP in social conservatives while John and Rudy battle to secure the defense conservatives and Rudy carries the fiscal conservative mantel.
So I'll stick with Rudy and Huck versus Obama and whoever he anoints VP (perhaps Edwards, maybe Richardson, definitely not Hillary and probably a conservative Democrat hoping to start demonstrating his unity strategy).
For more alternative scenarios, I offer Dick Morris who is obviously more skilled at political handicapping than I am.
**A Ground Game note: Ground Game will continue to evolve over the primaries and into the general election. We will continue to scour the news and blogs for the most important stuff and mix it with our unique and varied view points. We will also try to make it to the front lines as much as we can to give you first hand accounts. So tell your friends we are their best source for politics in 2008.
ABC Debate Thoughts -- The Cool Kid and the Valedictorian
Last night's debate attacks on Mitt Romney confirmed each of the GOP nominees see Mitt as the candidate that they cannot allow to gain momentum. I enjoyed having McCain in the fold until last night. His hostile remarks on the pharma industry were irresponsibly liberal. He also made it clear that he believes his experience would be compelling to voters in a showdown against Obama despite the fact that Dodd, Biden, Clinton, Edwards, and Richardson all tried that message and failed. Time Magazine said McCain v. Romney is like the The Cool Kid v. The Valedictorian.
The New Republic said, "It was all a bit much. At certain moments it had the effect of making Romney look more sympathetic, at others it made him look like the only adult on stage, and at others it made him look like he must be the front-runner, since people were so determined to take him down a peg. McCain in particular seemed to go too far, looking and sounding downright snide at times. I could see the pundits proclaiming Mitt the loser since he took so much incoming fire. But my hunch is that it won't play that way among voters."
The New Republic said, "It was all a bit much. At certain moments it had the effect of making Romney look more sympathetic, at others it made him look like the only adult on stage, and at others it made him look like he must be the front-runner, since people were so determined to take him down a peg. McCain in particular seemed to go too far, looking and sounding downright snide at times. I could see the pundits proclaiming Mitt the loser since he took so much incoming fire. But my hunch is that it won't play that way among voters."
The Problem with Populists
I liked George Will's take on the problem with populists.
"The way to achieve Edwards' and Huckabee's populist goal of reducing the role of "special interests," meaning money, in government is to reduce the role of government in distributing money. But populists want to sharply increase that role by expanding the regulatory state's reach and enlarging its agenda of determining the distribution of wealth. Populists, who are slow learners, cannot comprehend this iron law: Concentrate power in Washington and you increase the power of interests whose representatives are concentrated there."
"Barack Obama, who might be mercifully closing the Clinton parenthesis in presidential history, is refreshingly cerebral amid this recrudescence of the paranoid style in American politics. He is the un-Edwards and un-Huckabee -- an adult aiming to reform the real world rather than an adolescent fantasizing mock-heroic "fights" against fictitious villains in a left-wing cartoon version of this country."
"The way to achieve Edwards' and Huckabee's populist goal of reducing the role of "special interests," meaning money, in government is to reduce the role of government in distributing money. But populists want to sharply increase that role by expanding the regulatory state's reach and enlarging its agenda of determining the distribution of wealth. Populists, who are slow learners, cannot comprehend this iron law: Concentrate power in Washington and you increase the power of interests whose representatives are concentrated there."
"Barack Obama, who might be mercifully closing the Clinton parenthesis in presidential history, is refreshingly cerebral amid this recrudescence of the paranoid style in American politics. He is the un-Edwards and un-Huckabee -- an adult aiming to reform the real world rather than an adolescent fantasizing mock-heroic "fights" against fictitious villains in a left-wing cartoon version of this country."
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Final Thought on Iowa
Since Jonathan's prognostications have thus far left us largely wanting, I'll go ahead and make a bold one -- Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States.
I am staking my Obama prediction strictly on my belief that his youth and likability will bring new people into the process. I know, I know, Hillary will not go away easily. She will do her best to bring to light Obama's early career in the Chicago Democratic machine, perhaps the nation's most corrupt political scene. She will expose his ties to Tony Rezko. This will help Republicans, but I do not believe anything will stick to Obama. He is a likable guy, and I do not think the media be willing accomplices in an endeavor to destroy him.
In 16 Year Itch Michael Barone explains a phenomena in American presidential politics that happens every 16 years when the median aged voter has a completely different life experience leading to a different evaluation of candidates. "New voters, taking the good things of the present for granted and ignorant of the bad things of the past, are willing to take unusual risks. That seems to be happening this year."
If our education system has done its job, all of those young caucus goers that I saw in Iowa Thursday night know that our country is more prosperous because of supply side economic policies and free trade. They probably learned how the high marginal and corporate tax rates of the 70's led to simultaneous double-digit inflation and double-digit unemployment, as they would certainly have been too young to ever experience true economic hardship in their lifetime (despite Huckabee and the Democrats telling them this is The Great Depression all over again).
Of course, there will be a lot happen in the next few days, let alone before November.
I am staking my Obama prediction strictly on my belief that his youth and likability will bring new people into the process. I know, I know, Hillary will not go away easily. She will do her best to bring to light Obama's early career in the Chicago Democratic machine, perhaps the nation's most corrupt political scene. She will expose his ties to Tony Rezko. This will help Republicans, but I do not believe anything will stick to Obama. He is a likable guy, and I do not think the media be willing accomplices in an endeavor to destroy him.
In 16 Year Itch Michael Barone explains a phenomena in American presidential politics that happens every 16 years when the median aged voter has a completely different life experience leading to a different evaluation of candidates. "New voters, taking the good things of the present for granted and ignorant of the bad things of the past, are willing to take unusual risks. That seems to be happening this year."
If our education system has done its job, all of those young caucus goers that I saw in Iowa Thursday night know that our country is more prosperous because of supply side economic policies and free trade. They probably learned how the high marginal and corporate tax rates of the 70's led to simultaneous double-digit inflation and double-digit unemployment, as they would certainly have been too young to ever experience true economic hardship in their lifetime (despite Huckabee and the Democrats telling them this is The Great Depression all over again).
Of course, there will be a lot happen in the next few days, let alone before November.
Up Next: New Hampshire
In the last four contested New Hampshire GOP primaries (1980, 88, 96, 00), New Hampshire has picked a different winner than Iowa. In two cases the Iowa winner went on to the nomination, in two cases the NH winner prevailed. However, since Iowa took its current place in the process, a candidate has had to score a win in one of the two states to move on, though no candidate has won both in a contested year.
This does not bode well for Mike Huckabee's chances in New Hampshire, but as Bob Dole and George W. Bush proved, an Iowa win can take you to the nomination without the support of The Granite State.
This also does not bode well for Tuesday's second-place finisher, likely to be Governor Mitt Romney or Senator John McCain. Senator McCain would be particularly damaged because his campaign is already running on borrowed money. If McCain cannot win in New Hampshire, it is unclear where he could soon get on the board. He destroyed George W. Bush in the 2000 primary, and has again raked in all of the key local newspaper endorsements. Without money, Sen. McCain is telling the media that he would like to see a positive campaign, while the same pro-McCain newspapers do his attacking on Governor Romney.
While Mitt Romney will have the resources to continue in any outcome, another loss by a wide margin would be very bad news. The Michigan primary is one week later, and it would seem that one would be a slam dunk for Governor Romney, but another distant second would put his campaign in jeopardy.
I am going to predict that Romney narrowly edges McCain in a very tight race. I think New Hampshire voters are more issue-oriented, and only Romney and Thompson have spoken to conservatives on the issues. McCain will capture the independents looking for the person, not the platform, but the basis for my prediction is that Obama's presence on the other side will pull away up to half of those swing voters who propelled McCain to his huge win in 2000. The first post-Iowa poll will be posted on The Page at 6p today.
Also, Romney has collected 75% of the Wyoming delegates with 66% of precincts reporting. We needed some good news. Watch the Republicans at 7p tonight on ABC.
This does not bode well for Mike Huckabee's chances in New Hampshire, but as Bob Dole and George W. Bush proved, an Iowa win can take you to the nomination without the support of The Granite State.
This also does not bode well for Tuesday's second-place finisher, likely to be Governor Mitt Romney or Senator John McCain. Senator McCain would be particularly damaged because his campaign is already running on borrowed money. If McCain cannot win in New Hampshire, it is unclear where he could soon get on the board. He destroyed George W. Bush in the 2000 primary, and has again raked in all of the key local newspaper endorsements. Without money, Sen. McCain is telling the media that he would like to see a positive campaign, while the same pro-McCain newspapers do his attacking on Governor Romney.
While Mitt Romney will have the resources to continue in any outcome, another loss by a wide margin would be very bad news. The Michigan primary is one week later, and it would seem that one would be a slam dunk for Governor Romney, but another distant second would put his campaign in jeopardy.
I am going to predict that Romney narrowly edges McCain in a very tight race. I think New Hampshire voters are more issue-oriented, and only Romney and Thompson have spoken to conservatives on the issues. McCain will capture the independents looking for the person, not the platform, but the basis for my prediction is that Obama's presence on the other side will pull away up to half of those swing voters who propelled McCain to his huge win in 2000. The first post-Iowa poll will be posted on The Page at 6p today.
Also, Romney has collected 75% of the Wyoming delegates with 66% of precincts reporting. We needed some good news. Watch the Republicans at 7p tonight on ABC.
Friday, January 4, 2008
Photos: At the Caucus
Republicans caucus in the auditorium, Jan 3, 7p. Two reporters anxiously await results from Davenport City Precincts gathering at West High School.
Precinct 41 -- 63 total Republican caucus goers
Democrats caucusing in the cafeteria
Photos: Romney Campaign Office
Former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert in town to support Governor Romney.
With PJ Wenzel, Romney for President Regional Director and Mike King, Volunteer
PJ provides instructions to the team
Photos: Senator McCain Rally
Photos taken Jan 2, 7p at Assumption High School in Davenport. Senators Thune, Graham, and Brownback were on hand to support their colleague. Photo of Senator Sam Brownback below. 
Thursday, January 3, 2008
The Turnout Factor and The Small Victories
When the final numbers are tallied, I believe Governor Romney will have turned out the key 30,000 caucus goers that I predicted should ensure victory. This would have been 34% of the 88,000 that turned out on the GOP side in 2000. A 34% showing would have tied him with Governor Huckabee. However, all of the fresh faces in 2008 that did not caucus in 2000 gave Huckabee a comfortable margin on top of our outstanding turnout.
In Scott County, Governor Romney bested Governor Huckabee 32% to 22%. I believe Governor Romney will continue to execute his campaign with discipline for competitive fights in NH, NV, MI, and SC.
In Scott County, Governor Romney bested Governor Huckabee 32% to 22%. I believe Governor Romney will continue to execute his campaign with discipline for competitive fights in NH, NV, MI, and SC.
The Silent Majority Ruled the Night
I was thrilled to have the opportunity tonight to serve as a Scott County precinct captain for Governor Romney. I was assigned to the Davenport City-41 precinct. We caucused in the auditorium of West High School (Davenport). It was a large school and a large auditorium -- there were six Republican precincts caucusing in the same auditorium.
The Thompson campaign was the only other to provide a precinct captain.
As I rallied my Romney supporters, and checked names from my list I recognized the Thompson campaign was grabbing nearly as many as I was. I felt good about this. The Thompson folks are a lot like Romney folks in their conservativeness, but they have an extra touch of laid-back folksy.
As we had the Romney and Thompson folks decorated in our colors, a small minority asked me if they knew where they could get a Huckabee sticker/placard/literature/sign. There were none to be found. I did not see Mr. Huckabee's name anywhere the entire night (until we started counting ballots). No signs in front of the school, no captains to rally the troops. It would be safe to say they did not have a single staffer or volunteer at this large six-precinct gathering of caucus-goers at West High School.
When it was time to speak on behalf of the candidates, I moved first to endorse Governor Romney. I thanked the audience for their participation in the process and remarked about our wonderful system in America that we can gather in a peaceful forum, discuss our candidates, make a selection, and then go back to being friends and neighbors. After speaking on Governor Romney's key issue positions I suggested that only Mitt Romney had orchestrated the kind of fundraising and campaign that could compete with the one the Republicans will be certain to face in November, as Senators Clinton and Obama have demonstrated a lot of success in this area.
The precinct captain for Senator Thompson followed me. There was also a speaker for Duncan Hunter. The McCain camp had an out-of-state college student trying to man all six precincts in the auditorium. He was passionate, but a bit angry and did a poor job of relating to the audience (median age ~50) as he yelled about McCain being right and Bush being wrong. The Huckabee, Giuliani, and Paul camps did not have a spokesperson.
Final Tally, Precinct: Davenport City-41: 1. Mike Huckabee (23, 36.5%); 2. Mitt Romney (13, 20.6%); 3. Fred Thompson (11, 17.5%); 3. John McCain (11, 17.5%); 5. Ron Paul (4, 6.3%); 6. Duncan Hunter (1, 1.6%), 7. Rudy Giuliani (0, 0%)
I could not believe it. There was not a single Huckabee staffer, volunteer, or precinct captain on hand. There was not one person in our precinct willing to speak up on his behalf. Yet, as I counted the ballots with the Thompson Team, paper after paper we were amazed to see Huckabee win the support of over a third of the crowd. Many of these were first-time caucus-goers who registered to vote on site. They weren't registered beforehand, weren't willing to speak up for their guy, but showed up to cast their vote -- the silent supporters of Governor Mike Huckabee.
The Thompson campaign was the only other to provide a precinct captain.
As I rallied my Romney supporters, and checked names from my list I recognized the Thompson campaign was grabbing nearly as many as I was. I felt good about this. The Thompson folks are a lot like Romney folks in their conservativeness, but they have an extra touch of laid-back folksy.
As we had the Romney and Thompson folks decorated in our colors, a small minority asked me if they knew where they could get a Huckabee sticker/placard/literature/sign. There were none to be found. I did not see Mr. Huckabee's name anywhere the entire night (until we started counting ballots). No signs in front of the school, no captains to rally the troops. It would be safe to say they did not have a single staffer or volunteer at this large six-precinct gathering of caucus-goers at West High School.
When it was time to speak on behalf of the candidates, I moved first to endorse Governor Romney. I thanked the audience for their participation in the process and remarked about our wonderful system in America that we can gather in a peaceful forum, discuss our candidates, make a selection, and then go back to being friends and neighbors. After speaking on Governor Romney's key issue positions I suggested that only Mitt Romney had orchestrated the kind of fundraising and campaign that could compete with the one the Republicans will be certain to face in November, as Senators Clinton and Obama have demonstrated a lot of success in this area.
The precinct captain for Senator Thompson followed me. There was also a speaker for Duncan Hunter. The McCain camp had an out-of-state college student trying to man all six precincts in the auditorium. He was passionate, but a bit angry and did a poor job of relating to the audience (median age ~50) as he yelled about McCain being right and Bush being wrong. The Huckabee, Giuliani, and Paul camps did not have a spokesperson.
Final Tally, Precinct: Davenport City-41: 1. Mike Huckabee (23, 36.5%); 2. Mitt Romney (13, 20.6%); 3. Fred Thompson (11, 17.5%); 3. John McCain (11, 17.5%); 5. Ron Paul (4, 6.3%); 6. Duncan Hunter (1, 1.6%), 7. Rudy Giuliani (0, 0%)
I could not believe it. There was not a single Huckabee staffer, volunteer, or precinct captain on hand. There was not one person in our precinct willing to speak up on his behalf. Yet, as I counted the ballots with the Thompson Team, paper after paper we were amazed to see Huckabee win the support of over a third of the crowd. Many of these were first-time caucus-goers who registered to vote on site. They weren't registered beforehand, weren't willing to speak up for their guy, but showed up to cast their vote -- the silent supporters of Governor Mike Huckabee.
A Successful Day...
At 9a, we had two dozen volunteers in Governor Romney's Quad Cities headquarters. The coffee was hot, the Krispy Kremes were fresh. By 11a, we had placed 2000 calls to likely caucus goers. Mike Huckabee's Scott County Chairman (an Iowa state senator) stopped by before noon to visit his fellow Scott Co. GOP leaders (who were leading the local Romney effort). He remarked that the Huckabee camp was not doing anything in Scott County today, and he wondered where we found so many people. He was very impressed with the disciplined campaign operation.
The local news came by at noon to cover our activities. Around 3p, former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert came by to motivate the Romney Team. He was in the Quad Cities to deliver remarks on Governor Romney's behalf at an important GOP caucus gathering.
At the end of the day, we had placed 3,700 calls from Scott County on Mr. Romney's behalf. The local Huckabee camp had not placed any. By the end of the day, I had connected with another 15 undecided voters who would caucus on behalf of Governor Romney. As I made calls at 4:00-5:00p, I was surprised what a large percentage of respondents still identified themselves as undecided. The figure fell short of my original goal of 50, but there were hundreds of us working for these votes one at a time. I was thrilled to be a part of such an excellent ground game.
The local news came by at noon to cover our activities. Around 3p, former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert came by to motivate the Romney Team. He was in the Quad Cities to deliver remarks on Governor Romney's behalf at an important GOP caucus gathering.
At the end of the day, we had placed 3,700 calls from Scott County on Mr. Romney's behalf. The local Huckabee camp had not placed any. By the end of the day, I had connected with another 15 undecided voters who would caucus on behalf of Governor Romney. As I made calls at 4:00-5:00p, I was surprised what a large percentage of respondents still identified themselves as undecided. The figure fell short of my original goal of 50, but there were hundreds of us working for these votes one at a time. I was thrilled to be a part of such an excellent ground game.
Davenport City Results
Just came over via text msg:
Huckabee: 23%
Romney: 13%
Thompson: 11%
McCain: 11%
Paul: 4%
Hunter: 1%
Rudy: 0%
Huckabee: 23%
Romney: 13%
Thompson: 11%
McCain: 11%
Paul: 4%
Hunter: 1%
Rudy: 0%
Huckabee Early Lead
It is early, but Huckabee seems to be running away with it. Nobody tell Dale.
Dale is reporting in from precinct 41. Huckabee 23, Romney 13, Thompson 11, McCain 11, Paul 4, Hunter 1, Rudy 0
NBC now calling Huckabee the winner, BIG
Dale is reporting in from precinct 41. Huckabee 23, Romney 13, Thompson 11, McCain 11, Paul 4, Hunter 1, Rudy 0
NBC now calling Huckabee the winner, BIG
Edwards Lagging
“Democrats Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama vied for victory Thursday night in the Iowa caucuses, while Mike Huckabee battled Mitt Romney among Republicans. John Edwards lagged in a survey of voters entering the caucuses by The Associated Press and the television networks.”
Hastert & Weather
Two updates from wfbjr:
He was able to meet Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert today. I'll let him fill you in on the details later.
The roads are very icy in Scott County and he fears a lower turnout for older voters. It could also keep some first-time caucus goers at home.
He was able to meet Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert today. I'll let him fill you in on the details later.
The roads are very icy in Scott County and he fears a lower turnout for older voters. It could also keep some first-time caucus goers at home.
High Turnout Reported
Fox news is reporting very high turnout at many of the Des Moines Democratic precincts.
Dodd May Drop Out
(From Ben Smith of Politico)
Sen. Chris Dodd, who moved his family to Iowa in an effort to make a strong showing in the caucus, has told Fox News that he would be “going to Hartford tomorrow” if he doesn’t finish stronger than fourth place tonight, my colleague Martin Kady II reports.
Dodd has had a successful fundraising run thanks to his chairmanship of the Senate Banking Committee, which has opened the door to millions in contributions from the financial services industry, but he has been unable to crack into the upper tier among Democratic candidates.
It’s not clear yet who Dodd will endorse if he drops out.
Sen. Chris Dodd, who moved his family to Iowa in an effort to make a strong showing in the caucus, has told Fox News that he would be “going to Hartford tomorrow” if he doesn’t finish stronger than fourth place tonight, my colleague Martin Kady II reports.
Dodd has had a successful fundraising run thanks to his chairmanship of the Senate Banking Committee, which has opened the door to millions in contributions from the financial services industry, but he has been unable to crack into the upper tier among Democratic candidates.
It’s not clear yet who Dodd will endorse if he drops out.
Precinct Captain
I don't think wfbjr mentioned that he has been chosen to be a Precinct Captain and a vote auditor tonight...it's like Christmas all over again for him!
This is wfbjr's wife filling in for him while he's on the scene in Iowa. He wanted me to relay an amusing story from Scott County today, although you must bare with me as I am not nearly as gifted in the art of storytelling as my other-half.
He has spent most of the day working the busy phone banks and has been impressed with the organization of the office. In the spirit of Jonathan's trip, it seems that another caucus volunteer was extremely impressed with the Romney office - a Huckabee supporter.
This particular person has a volunteer friend in the Romney office and he spent a few hours there today just checking things out. I think his quote was, "Wow, where did you get all these people?", referring to the number of Romney supporters trying to get out the vote. Not only did he make comment after comment about the structure and organization (it doesn't seem like Huckabee has a Scott County office), but he was actually interviewed by a news organization while in the Romney office. Wfbjr reports that it was quite funny watching a Huckabee supporter being interviewed with "Vote for Romney" signs behind him. His comment to the media was that his observation was the vast difference in how Huckabee and Romney are running their campaigns.
So that's all I have for now, unless you count the number of times my husband has eaten at Red Robin in the 30 hours he has been in Iowa. Good thing our treadmill is being delivered on Tuesday.
He has spent most of the day working the busy phone banks and has been impressed with the organization of the office. In the spirit of Jonathan's trip, it seems that another caucus volunteer was extremely impressed with the Romney office - a Huckabee supporter.
This particular person has a volunteer friend in the Romney office and he spent a few hours there today just checking things out. I think his quote was, "Wow, where did you get all these people?", referring to the number of Romney supporters trying to get out the vote. Not only did he make comment after comment about the structure and organization (it doesn't seem like Huckabee has a Scott County office), but he was actually interviewed by a news organization while in the Romney office. Wfbjr reports that it was quite funny watching a Huckabee supporter being interviewed with "Vote for Romney" signs behind him. His comment to the media was that his observation was the vast difference in how Huckabee and Romney are running their campaigns.
So that's all I have for now, unless you count the number of times my husband has eaten at Red Robin in the 30 hours he has been in Iowa. Good thing our treadmill is being delivered on Tuesday.
More Deals Moving for Obama
Now looks as if conversations between the Richardson and Obama campaigns are ongoing for deal for Richardson's second choice votes.
After earlier winning the support of Dennis Kucinich, Obama’s campaign has reached an agreement with Bill Richardson for the second-choice votes of Richardson supporters in caucuses where the New Mexico governor can’t clear the threshold for competition, according to a senior Obama campaign adviser.
After earlier winning the support of Dennis Kucinich, Obama’s campaign has reached an agreement with Bill Richardson for the second-choice votes of Richardson supporters in caucuses where the New Mexico governor can’t clear the threshold for competition, according to a senior Obama campaign adviser.
West Wing Candidates
Cast from (my favorite) the hit show West Wing have been delving into politics once again. Martin Sheen, President Jed Bartlett, has endorsed Bill Richardson. Josh Lyman (Bradley Whitford) has campaigned some for Richardson and endorsed Chris Dodd. Richard Schiff who played Toby is on the campaign trail with Joe Biden. Still waiting to see to whom Rob Lowe, Janel Moloney, Allison Janney and the bunch might lend their West Wing credentials.
When Will We Know
It looks like we should have a good idea about the Republicans by 9:00pm est because the GOP caucus is a straw poll format. The Democrats will take a bit longer but by 11:00pm est, we should know both winners.
Deal Making
Reported from Politico's Ben Smith
Some actual reporting on a deal in the works:
A source close to the Biden campaign described a possible arrangement, now under discussion between the two camps, that could apply to certain precincts where Biden can't meet the 15 percent viability threshold, but where he is backed by local officials with the clout to move Biden supporters to Obama. In return, Biden could capture some of Obama's overflow in precincts where the Illinois senator has more than enough support to win.
She's got confirmation from Obamaland that they're talking.
Predictions Revisited
I wanted to be a bit more specific based on what I am seeing.
Democrats
Obama 29%
Clinton 26%
Edwards 21%
Richardson 18%
Republicans
Romney 30%
Huckabee 26%
McCain 17%
Thompson 11%
Paul 9%
Alternative Storylines:
1 - Obama could win by 6-8% and Hillary could finish in third effectively ending her campaign.
2 - Turnout could be the largest in Iowa caucus modern history.
3 - Huckabee could win by 6-8% while McCain could show very strong.
Stay tuned to Ground Game for continued reports of caucus action that you need to know.
Democrats
Obama 29%
Clinton 26%
Edwards 21%
Richardson 18%
Republicans
Romney 30%
Huckabee 26%
McCain 17%
Thompson 11%
Paul 9%
Alternative Storylines:
1 - Obama could win by 6-8% and Hillary could finish in third effectively ending her campaign.
2 - Turnout could be the largest in Iowa caucus modern history.
3 - Huckabee could win by 6-8% while McCain could show very strong.
Stay tuned to Ground Game for continued reports of caucus action that you need to know.
MSNBC Live in Iowa
Morning Joe and Tucker Carlson are broadcasting live from Java Joes in De Moines. I enjoyed that fabulous latte last week in that very spot.
Game Day
Now it comes down to boots on the ground. My boots will hit the ground in just a few minutes. The wind chill is -5, but that figure is supposed to be over zero before noon. The forecast for caucus time (7p Central) is 23 degrees and clear, a wind chill of 10.
11 hours to caucus...
11 hours to caucus...
Before All the Votes Get Counted
I made a few predictions on the flight home. Since that time, others have made some similar insinuations that I thought I would point out.
1 - Edwards a distant third - while the last Des Moines Register poll confirms that thought, Novak predicts Hillary will end up a distant third.
2 - Richardson will surprise and beat expectations - I am still the only one I see saying that
3 - Obama will win by a slim 2 points - the Des Moines Register poll has him at 7 points outside the margin of error. Some pundits discount the poll and still think it is close, but Obama may have made a significant move. Readers of Ground Game should not be surprised.
4 - Fred will drop out of the race after New Hampshire - Ground Game's friend (sort of), Jonathan Martin, now suggests that Fred could drop out even sooner depending on how Iowa turns out for him
5 - Romney will win by 6-8% - The Novak article agrees with me. The Des Moines Register poll as well as the recent Zogby poll still have Huckabee leading. But my money is on Dale and his new friends getting their 50 supporters a piece and delivering a big win.
1 - Edwards a distant third - while the last Des Moines Register poll confirms that thought, Novak predicts Hillary will end up a distant third.
2 - Richardson will surprise and beat expectations - I am still the only one I see saying that
3 - Obama will win by a slim 2 points - the Des Moines Register poll has him at 7 points outside the margin of error. Some pundits discount the poll and still think it is close, but Obama may have made a significant move. Readers of Ground Game should not be surprised.
4 - Fred will drop out of the race after New Hampshire - Ground Game's friend (sort of), Jonathan Martin, now suggests that Fred could drop out even sooner depending on how Iowa turns out for him
5 - Romney will win by 6-8% - The Novak article agrees with me. The Des Moines Register poll as well as the recent Zogby poll still have Huckabee leading. But my money is on Dale and his new friends getting their 50 supporters a piece and delivering a big win.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Day One Wrap Up
I enjoyed my work today for the Romney campaign. Our team is the best organized on the Republican side. My goal for this trip was to ensure the turnout of 50 caucus goers to support Governor Romney, and I count 16 as a result of today's work. My favorite was Bill from Dubuque who is bringing his father, sons, and two neighbors to caucus for Governor Romney. We talked for ten minutes about our shared values. He farms and owns a roofing business.
Our team fluctuated, but averaged about 12 on the phones at any given moment -- I'd put the median age at 30-35. Governor Romney mentioned at this morning's press conference that over 15,000 calls are made daily by his statewide team. Many of the published Iowa polls include 700-800 respondents, so when you think about the information pouring into those campaigns contacting 15,000+ folks a day, it puts the quality of internal polling data into a whole new perspective.
The McCain event was well worth the quick trip over to Assumption High School in Davenport. Senator McCain is a class act, and spent much of his time celebrating the active and retired members of our military in the audience (which looked to be ~20% of the crowd when he asked them to stand for recognition). We were in the gymnasium, and I estimate a crowd of around 300. I did have an opportunity to shake his hand (photos to come on Friday). Mr. McCain gave special treatment to those who had served in Afghanistan or Iraq. I like that about him.
In addition, Senators Brownback, Graham, and Thune were on hand to support to their colleague. Sen. McCain quipped, "If I looked like [Thune], I’d be President of the United States today. Not Lindsey Graham."
Senator Brownback and I were members of the same fraternity as undergraduates. As all the post-speech attention was being showered on Senator McCain, I took the opportunity to mention the connection. He asked about a mutual acquiantance from my chapter (his generation). Senator Brownback shares my sentiment that we have a strong field on the GOP side. Only in Iowa is it so easy to chat it up with a U.S. Senator on a range of topics. I love this stuff.
19 hours to caucus...
Our team fluctuated, but averaged about 12 on the phones at any given moment -- I'd put the median age at 30-35. Governor Romney mentioned at this morning's press conference that over 15,000 calls are made daily by his statewide team. Many of the published Iowa polls include 700-800 respondents, so when you think about the information pouring into those campaigns contacting 15,000+ folks a day, it puts the quality of internal polling data into a whole new perspective.
The McCain event was well worth the quick trip over to Assumption High School in Davenport. Senator McCain is a class act, and spent much of his time celebrating the active and retired members of our military in the audience (which looked to be ~20% of the crowd when he asked them to stand for recognition). We were in the gymnasium, and I estimate a crowd of around 300. I did have an opportunity to shake his hand (photos to come on Friday). Mr. McCain gave special treatment to those who had served in Afghanistan or Iraq. I like that about him.
In addition, Senators Brownback, Graham, and Thune were on hand to support to their colleague. Sen. McCain quipped, "If I looked like [Thune], I’d be President of the United States today. Not Lindsey Graham."
Senator Brownback and I were members of the same fraternity as undergraduates. As all the post-speech attention was being showered on Senator McCain, I took the opportunity to mention the connection. He asked about a mutual acquiantance from my chapter (his generation). Senator Brownback shares my sentiment that we have a strong field on the GOP side. Only in Iowa is it so easy to chat it up with a U.S. Senator on a range of topics. I love this stuff.
19 hours to caucus...
Arrival in Iowa
I made the 300 mile drive from Indianapolis to the Quad Cities with just one stop this morning, and arrived around noon. My first taste of the Iowa caucuses was an event featuring Governor Romney at Bettendorf Middle School. I shook his hand and thanked him for running for President. He responded graciously. As a dedicated runner, I observed and must post that I was impressed with how physically fit he was. He sure doesn't look 60 years old, and may have been the fittest person in the room.
There were perhaps 100 of us crammed into the library. I was surprised at the small percentage that I estimated to be likely caucus-goers, particularly undecided caucus-goers. Over half of those in attendance were members of the media, students, and campaign staff/volunteers. The three likely caucus-goers that I visited with all had already made up their mind to support another candidate (McCain and Biden).
Governor Romney used his time to thank Iowans for all of their hospitality over the last year that he has traveled the state. He reinforced that he believes his strong appeal in places like Iowa, NH, Michigan, and S. Carolina positions him well to win both the party nomination and the general election. He highlighted Mr. McCain's two votes against the Bush tax cuts. Most of the press questions were about Mr. McCain, though one reporter inquired about Mr. Huckabee's decision to spend caucus eve crossing the picket line on The Tonight Show.
I captured some great photos of the event, but did not bring the necessary equipment to upload on location. I will have to add my photos when I return to Indianapolis on Friday. I will not attempt to trump Jonathan's superb on-site reporting.
When I returned to my car parked at the middle school, someone (presumably a McCain supporter), had printed today's Manchester Union Leader attack on Mitt Romney and placed it under my windshield wiper. The Union Leader takes their McCain endorsement seriously, and wants others to do the same. I am not aware of any newspaper ever taking such an active role to support a candidate.
In addition to Governor Romney's appearance this morning, Hillary Clinton, Fred Thompson, and John McCain all have events scheduled this afternoon and this evening in Scott County. I am headed to the Romney HQ right now, but may look to attend the McCain event for a few minutes tonight for Justin.
28 hours to caucus...
There were perhaps 100 of us crammed into the library. I was surprised at the small percentage that I estimated to be likely caucus-goers, particularly undecided caucus-goers. Over half of those in attendance were members of the media, students, and campaign staff/volunteers. The three likely caucus-goers that I visited with all had already made up their mind to support another candidate (McCain and Biden).
Governor Romney used his time to thank Iowans for all of their hospitality over the last year that he has traveled the state. He reinforced that he believes his strong appeal in places like Iowa, NH, Michigan, and S. Carolina positions him well to win both the party nomination and the general election. He highlighted Mr. McCain's two votes against the Bush tax cuts. Most of the press questions were about Mr. McCain, though one reporter inquired about Mr. Huckabee's decision to spend caucus eve crossing the picket line on The Tonight Show.
I captured some great photos of the event, but did not bring the necessary equipment to upload on location. I will have to add my photos when I return to Indianapolis on Friday. I will not attempt to trump Jonathan's superb on-site reporting.
When I returned to my car parked at the middle school, someone (presumably a McCain supporter), had printed today's Manchester Union Leader attack on Mitt Romney and placed it under my windshield wiper. The Union Leader takes their McCain endorsement seriously, and wants others to do the same. I am not aware of any newspaper ever taking such an active role to support a candidate.
In addition to Governor Romney's appearance this morning, Hillary Clinton, Fred Thompson, and John McCain all have events scheduled this afternoon and this evening in Scott County. I am headed to the Romney HQ right now, but may look to attend the McCain event for a few minutes tonight for Justin.
28 hours to caucus...
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
The Lay of the Land
On the eve before my departure, I thought it might be useful to describe the fertile ground into which I will parachute tomorrow.
Scott County is the 3rd largest of Iowa's 99 counties with 163,000 residents. Scott County is home to both of Iowa's members of the Quad Cities -- Davenport (pop. 97,500) and Bettendorf (pop. 31,500). Median household income in the county is $47,000, median home value is $92,400, and 12% of the population lives below the poverty line. Of those over age 25, 86% hold a HS Diploma, and 25% have a bachelor's degree.
The county has 107,500 registered voters. The Democrats and Republicans each claim 28% of the registered voters, and the remaining 44% are not affiliated with a party. In the 2004 presidential election, turnout was 76%, and John Kerry carried the county 51 to 49.
There are 63 voting precincts in the county. The City of Davenport is home to half (32) of these, of which George W. Bush carried just 5 in 2004. However, George W. Bush carried 28 of the 31 (90%) of the precincts outside of Davenport including 10 of 11 in Bettendorf.
A quick snapshot would say that Scott County represents a typical slice of America -- a population center that skews Democratic, surrounding suburbs and rural areas that lean Republican, and a lot of independents that can go either direction.
Scott County is the 3rd largest of Iowa's 99 counties with 163,000 residents. Scott County is home to both of Iowa's members of the Quad Cities -- Davenport (pop. 97,500) and Bettendorf (pop. 31,500). Median household income in the county is $47,000, median home value is $92,400, and 12% of the population lives below the poverty line. Of those over age 25, 86% hold a HS Diploma, and 25% have a bachelor's degree.
The county has 107,500 registered voters. The Democrats and Republicans each claim 28% of the registered voters, and the remaining 44% are not affiliated with a party. In the 2004 presidential election, turnout was 76%, and John Kerry carried the county 51 to 49.
There are 63 voting precincts in the county. The City of Davenport is home to half (32) of these, of which George W. Bush carried just 5 in 2004. However, George W. Bush carried 28 of the 31 (90%) of the precincts outside of Davenport including 10 of 11 in Bettendorf.
A quick snapshot would say that Scott County represents a typical slice of America -- a population center that skews Democratic, surrounding suburbs and rural areas that lean Republican, and a lot of independents that can go either direction.
Singing to the Choir
Walter Shapiro, columnist and now headliner for Salon.com, offered another view of Obama that is worth the read for his inside view of the hopemonger.
They're all candidates of change...
Jonathan, your on-the-ground blogging was superlative. It appears Rich Lowry attended some of the same Iowa events this weekend, and his analysis of the front-runners is definitely worth a read, particularly with the backdrop of your observations. He could have written your Edwards and Obama summaries and vice versa. Did you compare notes in the Des Moines airport?
Lowry makes the case that all candidates have tailored their message to one of change:
Quoted from the article: For Huckabee, change is voting for the underdog. For Romney, change is competence. For Edwards, change is confrontation. For Obama, change is hope. For Fred, change is electing the guy who you can trust not to change.
I like his approach of reducing each candidate's message to a one word theme, and believe these themes are instructive to identifying the values of each front-runner's core supporters.
As Iowans take a closer look at Mr. Huckabee, Lowry's analysis rings true for many, "This, the first half of Huckabee’s presentation, is extremely impressive. It makes you wish that his prodigious talent could be marshaled for the forces of good. If only his gut instincts for bread-and-butter middle-class concerns were matched with better policy instincts and a more serious approach to policy."
On another note, in today's New York Times David Brooks acknowledges that Governor Romney is a decent man with some good fiscal and economic policies, but believes his across-the-board allegiance to conservative principles will ensure Democratic victory in November.
Brooks is one of my favorites, but I think he misreads that most Americans are much more likely to be fed up with Republicans, than with conservative principles. I also think he misses that many GOP primary voters see that there have been only four well-run campaigns in the 2008 cycle, and three of those have been run by Democratic candidates. Can Republicans trust Mr. McCain or Mr. Huckabee to go toe-to-toe with such a formidable opponent in what promises to be the longest ever (~9 mos.) general election?
Lowry makes the case that all candidates have tailored their message to one of change:
Quoted from the article: For Huckabee, change is voting for the underdog. For Romney, change is competence. For Edwards, change is confrontation. For Obama, change is hope. For Fred, change is electing the guy who you can trust not to change.
I like his approach of reducing each candidate's message to a one word theme, and believe these themes are instructive to identifying the values of each front-runner's core supporters.
As Iowans take a closer look at Mr. Huckabee, Lowry's analysis rings true for many, "This, the first half of Huckabee’s presentation, is extremely impressive. It makes you wish that his prodigious talent could be marshaled for the forces of good. If only his gut instincts for bread-and-butter middle-class concerns were matched with better policy instincts and a more serious approach to policy."
On another note, in today's New York Times David Brooks acknowledges that Governor Romney is a decent man with some good fiscal and economic policies, but believes his across-the-board allegiance to conservative principles will ensure Democratic victory in November.
Brooks is one of my favorites, but I think he misreads that most Americans are much more likely to be fed up with Republicans, than with conservative principles. I also think he misses that many GOP primary voters see that there have been only four well-run campaigns in the 2008 cycle, and three of those have been run by Democratic candidates. Can Republicans trust Mr. McCain or Mr. Huckabee to go toe-to-toe with such a formidable opponent in what promises to be the longest ever (~9 mos.) general election?
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