Monday, March 3, 2008

A Hillary "Surge"

I don't have anything to base this on beyond my daily reading of realclearpolitics.com and listening to "POTUS 08" on XM during my commute, but I'm sensing a slight momentum shift to Hillary that should keep her in the race past Tuesday.

It looks to me like she will win Ohio and TX will be close either way. I think a split keeps her in, especially as she can look to Pennsylvania where she has a lead. It looks like Florida (and perhaps Michigan) will be "do over" primaries, further encouraging her to stay in. I know the numbers probably don't favor her, but all she has to do is to keep it close for her to think she has a chance at the convention. Also, I'm not a big media consipiracy guy, but there is no doubt it is in journalist's best interest to keep this thing going as long as possible. What would MSNBC be running right now if there weren't a primary contest?

Obama is a rock star. The last candidate even close to him had to be Reagan ('80 and before). But what does it say about Obama that he can't put Hillary away? Are the flaws that are causing Dem primary goers to gulp big enough to cripple him in the general election?

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