Predictions & Surprises

In elections this close, prognosticating is always circumspect. But
now that I am back as an armchair politico I figured I would analyze
my experiences and do a bit of forecasting:

1 - Edwards will finish a surprisingly distant third, right at 20%

For avid readers of Ground Game, you knew three days ago what Politico
and Real Clear Politics reported today. Edwards is an angry man or at least assuming that posture to get win Iowa. I'm not sure how well that actually plays with Iowans. They truly believe the Democrats are a toss up and many are still intentionally undecided. I don't believe the harsh message of Edwards will stand up against the Clinton machine or Obama's message of hope. Edwards is well organized, but not well enough.

His other problem is the primary people attending his events may find a difficult time determining what part of the Edward's duality of America they fit into. They can sympathize with his stories of those less fortunate, but that does not mean they relate to them. And given the host of options this go round, Edwards won't hold. Not to mention Edwards is not a great second choice candidate so he will make up less ground than Hillary or Barack on the second count.

2 - Richardson will surprise and beat expectations

Polls have Richardson anywhere from 5%-12%. He has a devoted following and good representation in about 75% of the Iowa precincts. His main draw is twofold - education and bringing troops home now (even if it is unfeasible) his big question is viability. I expect he will do better in many precincts and beat the 15% threshold needed to hold his votes at caucus. I expect him to come in around 13-15% statewide and possibly begin brokering a deal for VP if the front runners stay close.

3 - Obama will win Iowa by a slim 2 points and take great momentum
into NH

I believe more undecideds leave Obama events as supporters than in similar events with other candidates. His organization is strong. Money is plentiful. His message is hopeful. He plays well in both metro and rural areas and Hillary's negatives are still strong. But most of all, he attracts more first time caucus goers than the others. As I am leaving Iowa, the coldest high pressure system of the year is setting in (highs ranging from 3-16 degrees statewide) but warmer weather returns for a sunny caucus day in the upper 30's. I believe turnout for Democrats will be greater than expected and put Barack over the top.

4 - Fred will drop out of the race after new Hampshire

Thompson is a victim of his own obstinacy. It's not a question of work ethic or even desire. But Fred has in his mind how he will get elected and will not change his game plan. Fred is like classic big 10, line it up and run down their throats kind of football team that has faded because they fail to adapt their offense to the game that isn't going very well. Iowa is Fred's 3rd quarter and New Hampshire is his 4th. South Carolina would be overtime if he somehow rallies but that would be Fred's homers talking. Thompson may survive Iowa in third, but more likely McCain passes him.

He says he is running because people wanted him to. Those folks will have found a new horse in a week and a half.

5 - Romney will win Iowa by a surprising 6-8% and Huck's improbable
run will be over

First let me defend an equally likely outcome. I have waited all week
to hear Huck get dumped on by Iowans. Outside the women at Rudy's HQ
that wanted to brawl with another lady who stood in front of her, Huck was most Republicans first or second choice and I heard very little about Romney. It is likely that the good church folk of Iowa made up their mind early and checked out of the process because they had their guy. Dale's point about Romney's commercials, attack ads or not, could likely be perceived as such and Huck could win by 6-8% himself. I recall Iowa went for Pat Robertson once.

But for three reasons, I believe Mitt takes it without it really being close. First, Romney never made if to Des Moines. He spent his days going from small town to smaller town building his organization. And organization is what separates the contenders and pretenders.

Second was Jackie Henson. I am sure she was a nice lady, but to be the head Volunteer Coordinator and not remember the story of a volunteer paying his own way from Vegas after hearing it twice as reading twice leads me to believe the campaign is over matched relying on Huck's communication skills to carry the day. (I just got home and saw that his 1pm press conference was either very shrewd or a debacle - what a guy) Iowans don't typically GO (though they may respond positive in poll questions) to caucus because they like a guy. They go because their neighbor/fellow Iowan convinces them to go. I have learned the ground game is crucial and I don't think he has a good one.

Finally, it is that one "something" that will keep some from caucusing for him. Take the guy who drove the airport shuttle today. "On the republican side, I like Huckabee I guess, though there is still something I am unsure about him." I think many Iowans believe something is unsure about him. Be it how his faith has come to the surface or his Pakistan gaffe or for me, it was the question Russert asked him on Meet the Press "Is Pakistan mostly Sunni or Shiite?" (the audacity of the question itself says a lot, like Huck was playing "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?") Then came the answer after a momentary pause as he searches the talking points in his head. "Sunni," he said. I still didn't know if he was right or even if he knew he was right. Turns out he was but I want my President to be more than a lucky guest on a game show. That's my something.

Like everyone else, I will now sit back and watch it all unfold.

Huckabee Goes Negative, Well Sort of...

Mike Huckabee produced a new ad directed at Mitt Romney (an absolute howitzer), called a press conference today to show it to the media, and then at the press conference showed the ad while announcing a change of heart that the ad will not run? Is this sincere?

My first thought is that Mike Huckabee saw that Mr. Romney's new ad closes the sale with Iowans in his positive, presidential style. The Huckabee camp did not want their nasty hit piece to be their final impression on Iowa caucus goers while Mr. Romney was all over television looking presidential.

Then why show it to the media? It doesn't make sense...unless they know they cannot afford to compete with the Romney Campaign on the airwaves, and are looking to their friendlies in the media and in the blog-o-sphere to carry their water.

The other possibility (speculating from Jonathan's first person observations) is that the Iowa Huckabee Team truly does not know what they are going to do next, and they called the press conference with no concrete strategy as to what they would do or say over the next few days. I realize the situation on the ground is fluid, but if Mr. Rollins and Mr. Huckabee can't execute a coherent plan to speak to friendly, interested Iowans, I am more uncertain than ever of their ability to execute a heavier political strategy with Russia or Pakistan.

Either way, this seems like a misstep for the Huckabee camp.

I'm Still Impressed with the Candidates and with Jonathan

Great posts and pics continue to be posted (was that a halo around Obama)? It's good to see that Jonathan's love of BHO never died, it just lay fallow for awhile.

So if I could sum up, Jonathan has been impressed with every candidate he has seen in person....they are thoughtful, funny, magnetic, etc. I have no doubt that Obama, Richardson, Thompson, Giuliani, and Huckabee are good, decent men (I still have my doubts about Edwards). These traits are probably more evident in person than filtered through the media. So what is it about the current state our TV, newspaper, internet coverage that is so NEGATIVE about the whole thing? Why do we obsess over who is or is not up by 2 pts, or who is about to go negative, or who has a "nanny (or drug or illegal immigrant or DUI) issue". Why is there, in the media, such a "paucity of hope."

Maybe the truth is that as Americans we view the race as entertainment but let the issues shape our votes. Truth be told, I'm going to click on a link on Drudge that reads "Huck slams Hill" but when I actually go to vote, I'm going to be thinking about what issues each candidate supports and what kind of person he or she is. I think a lot of people are like that. I think America is a land were tens of millions will watch/read what Paris Hilton is doing just for entertainment but it would be hard to find tens of thousands that would vote her to be dog catcher.

Jonathan, the only thing left to make your trip complete would be a pic of HRC and your thoughts of her in person.

Closing the Sale in Iowa

Excellent first hand observations from the Obama event, Jonathan. Can you stay for another week, and fly to New Hampshire on Friday?

See the perfectly executed distillation of Governor Romney's positive message in thirty seconds now posted on The Page.

The Hopemonger

I had great seats in Athens for the cool Saturday evening game in October. Auburn was in town to face the Georgia Bulldogs at Sam Boyd Stadium. This was a huge SEC match-up and the sold out crowd (except for the Auburn faithful appearing as an orange blob in the upper deck) was blacked out. Before a player set foot on the field, it was buzzing.

Last night at Weeks Middle School on the south side of Des Moines, there was no such buzz. The campaign cheerleaders and the loud music seemed unable to overcome the schedule that ran almost an hour late. And neither the esteemed Senator from North Dakota nor the local south side lawyer could generate the sort of enthusiasm you might expect from a crowd waiting for a supposed rock star.

And then in one moment, when Barack Obama appeared from behind the bleachers with that apple pie sized smile, the room was overwhelmed with electricity. My view from the front row, just inside the rope line, saw each facial expression, the gaze in his eyes, the dimples in his cheeks. Unlike any of the other events, the well orchestrated moment caught the energy of a flash mob as instantly everyone in the room who was physically able rose to their feet to catch a glimpse of this man.

Obama is the real deal. Be it his wry smirk or his confident chuckle, this man was born to play the role. He tone and cadence slipped in and out of the African-American preacher, the knowledgeable professor, and dare I say "Moses" (see The Synoptic Gospels of Obama & Huckabee). He exclaimed, "There is no problem we can't solve. No destiny we can't fulfill" and I believed him. While his message was certainly targeted for Iowa Democrats, he broadened his appeal. "Every American from every political stripe wants a new kid of politics." And perhaps his strongest line of the evening was, dare as say Kennedy or even Reagan re-visited. "We don't need more heat in Washington, we need more light."

His perfect pitch (even on his fourth rendition of his speech that day), his coy since of humor ("Normally when you do these genealogies, you hope for Paul Revere...or Willie Mays. And me, I got cousin Dick."), his inspirational rhythm brought the crowd to their feet three different occasions. These people, more diverse than any of the event participants I witnessed, would spontaneously call out to him and he would hear them and answer them.

If there were a man who turned one speech (at the Democratic National Convention in 2004) into a Presidential bid far before his "appointed" time, it is Obama. And while he dragged through the first part of the year, lagging in the polls and failing to impress in the debates, I now understand why his campaign has so much traction. It was here in this gymnasium that he touched people - with a glance, a laugh, and single word or phrase.

"My opponents have said I lack experience, I am naive, and I am too hopeful. Well, when you are a black man with a funny name and you are running for President you have to be hopeful. But they say, 'There goes Barack again, talking about hope.' They must think I am a hopemonger."

I shook his hand twice, exchanged a few words, watched how he carried himself, expressed himself, and touch his audience. There is something different about this man. Something that history will look back on scores of years from now and note with great reverence.

I am privileged to have been in the room. Hopemonger for President.

Iowa First

Joe Hallet (and crew) from DispatchPolitics.com posed the question, "Are Iowa, N.H. really worthy?" They note the movement from both parties to undo or change the current vetting system that forces candidates to stump in these two "first" states. My guess is this a charge from big name candidates who want to spend their time doing the big speeches and to which hand clutching is a bother. (It was Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio, a Hillary mouthpiece, that raised the issue) John Fund also addresses the concern that acts as a sub-plot in the quiet moments of the Iowa caucus.

I have meandered my way around Iowa for the better part of four days and I am impressed with these people. Not only do they take this role seriously, they were born into it, raised to understand their responsibility to educate themselves and ask the tough questions. Can some changes be made to the schedule to allow for a broader view early on in the primary season? Possibly. But I hope whatever conclusion is drawn up that Iowans maintain their significant role because these people, more so than any I have come across, see it as a sworn duty to the rest of our nation. We should be grateful.

The Nicest Guy in the Race

The scowl that has made its way onto the battered face of Mike Huckabee in recent days is probably the fate of a front runner. Even the hopeful Obama sometimes looks as if the frustration of a constant barrage of attacks are taking their personal toll. Which means the happiest dwarf in Iowa's bunch is still at the back of the pack and trying to eek out every last moment he has left.

I was impressed by Bill Richardson. While Edwards was angry, Bill was affable. While Fred was intense, Bill was entertaining. While Rudy was exiting, Bill was exciting.

The pregame at the People's Court (a popular club in the Court St. District when the sun goes down) had been transformed and held over 300 Iowans and press (and political bloggers like me) there to see Richardson be interviewed by Martin Sheen. Cheers were led by those on the stage as if we had mistakenly slipped into a rock concert or better, a high school basketball game. We were soon disappointed to find out that Jed Bartlett (Sheen's Presidential character on West Wing) was too sick to make the flight to Iowa. But our concern quickly faded as the music kicked up and Richardson made his way into to room. He was wearing a brown leather jacket over a red turtle neck and looked nothing like the candidates I had seen so far - he looked like he was enjoying it.

As he wound his way through the room, I shook his hand and he looked me in the eyes and for a moment I could see what voters in New Mexico have seen thus electing him governor of that state. His speech was more than positive. It was stirring. For a moment I thought that I would be okay with this guy leading our country as he promised a January 3rd surprise in the caucus.

Reality, though, may be a stronger force than Richardson's positive message. More likely, Richardson could be key in a late hour negotiated deal that could put one of the top three Democrats over the top. And truthfully, Bill is as likely to be the VP running mate as any other candidate because who doesn't want the "nice" guy on the team (not to mention his western state could be pivotal in the general and his Hispanic heritage could sway the largest minority in America).

So maybe there is a happy ending for this nice guy.